Republicans defy Trump and Mike Johnson on health care

• 17 House Republicans voted with Democrats to extend the subsidies despite opposition from Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).
• Trump has railed against the ACA subsidies, saying in November that Congress should not "waste" time on them. He reiterated to House Republicans Tuesday that he would prefer a plan that includes "sending money back to the people" rather than enriching insurance companies.
• The bill, which passed 230-196, now heads to the Senate, where Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has signaled he has no plans to bring it up for a vote.

Catch up quick: Johnson for months refused to bring up a compromise bill to extend the credits, prompting four vulnerable Republicans to sign Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' (D-N.Y.) discharge petition.

• That brought the petition to the necessary 218 signatures to bypass Republican leadership and force a vote.
• The four Republicans are all centrists facing tough reelection fights who feared an avalanche of Democratic attacks accusing them of allowing health care premiums to spike.
• "Those members need not ask me for any help in their campaigns whatsoever," Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) told Axios in December of his centrist GOP colleagues who signed the discharge petition.

Zoom out: Instances like this of Republicans breaking not only with Johnson but Trump are becoming more commonplace.

• Republicans have broken with the president on the Jeffrey Epstein files, tariff rebate checks and "Arctic Frost" just in the last few months.
• Dozens of House Republicans also voted Thursday to override two of Trump's vetoes on relatively noncontroversial bills facilitating a Colorado water project and handing over a portion of the Florida everglades.
• Still, both veto override efforts fell short of the necessary two-thirds majority.

Between the lines: The bill has no chance of becoming law in the Senate, but a bipartisan group of senators is working on a compromise plan that does have a chance of passing.

• Multiple lawmakers told Axios the emerging deal largely mirrors the centrists' original framework, with legislative language expected as soon as next week.
• Several more House Republicans are expected to support the compromise measure, if it reaches the House floor.

Yes, but: There are still some sticking points — including GOP demands around expanding the Hyde Amendment, which prohibits federal taxpayer dollars from funding abortion.

• "It's already in the ACA, the Hyde Amendment. So, we're having a hard time trying to figure out what the real problem is here," Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told reporters leaving a health care meeting Thursday.
• When Trump told House Republicans Tuesday to be "flexible" on Hyde, some conservatives were immediately outraged at the prospect of abandoning a long-held principle.
• But other moderates, like Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.), called it "very helpful" for negotiations.

What's next: If the Senate is able to cobble together 60 votes, the measure will have to come back to the House where Johnson has made no promises that he'll bring it up.

• "We will get it to the floor one way or another," Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) told Axios, signaling another discharge petition isn't off the table.
• "It would be unfathomable if something came out of the Senate and were not given a floor vote," he added.

The intrigue: Johnson has faced an unprecedented surge of successful discharge petitions this Congress from his own members, a key barometer of lawmaker frustration.

• The speaker told Axios in November that he would consider changing House rules to make them harder to achieve.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.