Netanyahu's Mar-a-Lago visit "crucial" for future of Gaza deal

Driving the news: The White House wants to unveil a Palestinian technocratic government and International Stabilization Force for Gaza as soon as possible, and potentially even convene the Trump-led Board of Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos later in January, White House officials say.

• Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and his adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner have been working with the Egyptians, Qataris and Turks to finalize those agreements and lay the groundwork for phase two of the deal — which involves Hamas handing over weapons and Israeli forces pulling back.
• But Netanyahu expressed skepticism over Witkoff and Kushner's ideas, especially on the demilitarization of Gaza, in a recent meeting with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) in Jerusalem, according to a source with knowledge.

That sets the stage for the critical meeting between Trump and Netanyahu in Florida.

• Without buy-in from Netanyahu, the peace process cannot move forward.
• "It's a crucial meeting. It is not clear whether Trump is in the same place Witkoff and Kushner are," the senior Israeli official said. "Bibi is trying to convince a one-man audience. The question is whether Trump will side with him or with his top advisers when it comes to Gaza. Who knows what Trump will choose?"

Friction point: Trump's top team has grown increasingly frustrated as Netanyahu has taken steps to undermine the fragile ceasefire and stall the peace process.

• Like the Biden administration before them, Trump's team has found itself bickering with the Israelis for weeks on tactical matters like opening the Rafah crossing with Egypt and supplying tents to displaced Palestinians seeking shelter for the winter.
• "It's J.D., Marco, Jared, Steve, Susie. He has lost them. The only one he has left is the president, who still likes him, but even he wants to see the Gaza deal moving faster than it is right now," a White House official told Axios.
• The senior Israeli official confirmed the gaps between Witkoff and Kushner on one side and Netanyahu on the other, but claimed Rubio is much closer to the Israeli prime minister's position.

Between the lines: "It's felt for some time like the Israelis have buyer's remorse," another White House official said, referring to the 20-point peace plan Netanyahu agreed to. "Implementing the Gaza deal is hard enough, but the Israelis sometimes do things that make it even harder."

• Those steps include killing a top Hamas military commander conducting several attacks that have killed Palestinian civilians, including children, in what the Trump administration saw as violations of the ceasefire.
• "Sometimes we feel the IDF commanders on the ground are just trigger-happy," a third White House official said, referring to the Israel Defense Forces.

The intrigue: It was Netanyahu who raised the idea of a meeting with Trump over the holiday period in a Dec. 1 phone call, two White House officials said.

• Trump said he'd be happy to see Netanyahu and the Israeli prime minister took it literally, with his team leaking that the meeting would take place at Mar-a-Lago and pushing the White House to lock in a date, according to the White House officials.
• At first, Trump wasn't sure he needed to meet Netanyahu so soon for a fifth time since returning to office, the officials said.
• But as the days passed, the timing of the meeting actually became useful for the White House, especially ahead of the planned rollout of the Gaza Board of Peace in January.

State of play: Last Friday, Witkoff and Kushner met in Miami with the prime minister of Qatar, the head of Egyptian intelligence and the Turkish foreign minister to discuss the next steps in Gaza. Those four countries are the guarantors of the peace deal.

• A senior White House official said that one of the goals of the meeting was to map out demands for Netanyahu ahead of his meeting with Trump.
• They agreed Trump would raise with Netanyahu the need for the IDF to adhere to the ceasefire and avoid civilian casualties, a White House official said.

Zoom in: The parties also agreed to move forward with naming the technocratic government as soon as possible so it can assume responsibility for day-to-day governance, in place of Hamas.

• The prospective members have been fully vetted by the U.S. and their names have been presented to several countries in the region, a White House official said.
• The Palestinian government will be supported by the Trump-led Board of Peace and its high representative on the ground, former UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov.
• The Palestinian government will also oversee the process of demilitarization in Gaza, according to three White House officials.

Breaking it down: The idea is to convince Hamas and other armed groups that the new Palestinian government is the only entity in charge of law and order and authorized to use weapons.

• A White House official said the demilitarization will take place in several phases, starting with heavy weapons like missiles and rockets and then moving over time to light weapons.
• That process will apply not only to Hamas but also other militias, including those that are armed and supported by Israel.
• The Palestinian government would be able to ask the International Stabilization Force to participate in the process of decommissioning weapons.

The other side: Netanyahu is skeptical of the demilitarization plan as well as the composition of the technocratic government and stabilization force, and the proposed roles for Turkey and Qatar in post-war Gaza.

• "We don't see the results of the meeting in Miami as positive," an Israeli official said.

What to watch: White House officials say another issue Trump is expected to raise in his meeting with Netanyahu is the situation in the West Bank and fears the Palestinian Authority could collapse.

• The Trump administration wants to move forward with an aggressive reform plan for the PA, but that won't work if the Israelis continue to undercut it, White House officials say.
• The Trump administration wants Israel to take steps to curb settler violence against Palestinians, release billions of dollars in Palestinian tax revenues it is holding, and even reach some understanding with the U.S. regarding expansion of settlements.

The big picture: The White House thinks the opportunities for Israel in the region are huge, but so is the damage to Israel's international standing after two years of war.

• "We need to help them normalize with the U.K. before we help them normalize with Saudi Arabia," one White House official said.
• One of the messages Trump and his team are expected to stress to Netanyahu during the meetings in Florida next week is that he needs to move on from the war and consider how he can promote peace.
• "We laid out to Netanyahu all the opportunities and the challenges. President Trump is bullish that he can help him with all of that, but not if the policy continues as it is now," a White House official said.