How Republicans plan to overcome Trump's pardon for Henry Cuellar
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Rep. Henry Cuellar during a news conference outside the Capitol on Sept. 30. Photo: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Congressional Republicans are still feeling bullish about unseating Rep. Henry Cuellar despite President Trump granting the Texas Democrat a political, and literal, get-out-jail-free-card.
Why it matters: Trump may have reshaped the race overnight by pardoning Cuellar, but the National Republican Congressional Committee is treating TX-28 like it's in play, even as many of their GOP members aren't convinced.
- "A deteriorating Democrat brand in South Texas, and continued gains with Hispanic voters by President Trump and Republicans, Texas' 28th District has emerged as one of the GOP's top pickup opportunities," the NRCC wrote in a memo first shared with Axios.
Catch up quick: Last May, federal prosecutors charged Cuellar and his wife — who both said they were innocent — with accepting nearly $600,000 in bribes in exchange for influencing U.S. foreign policy in favor of Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank.
- In early December, Trump granted a "full and unconditional" pardon for the South Texas Democrat, calling him a "beloved" congressman.
- Days later, Trump blasted Cuellar for what he called a "lack of LOYALTY" after Cuellar filed for reelection as a Democrat.
The big picture: Texas Republicans, at Trump's urging, kicked off the mid-cycle redistricting war, drawing a new congressional map designed to take out Cuellar.
- But the president's unconditional pardon — paired with unusually warm praise for the embattled Democrat — immediately strengthened Cuellar's standing and left many Republicans questioning whether they had lost their best chance to finally defeat him.
- Cook Political Report shifted Cuellar's race from a toss up to lean Democrat following the pardon.
- Trump won the district by seven percentage points in 2024, and under the new map, he would have carried it by ten.
Driving the news: House Republicans have acknowledged that Trump's pardon was a big boost for Democrats, including NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who told Axios the pardon "certainly makes it tougher" to flip the seat.
- Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) told Axios the pardon solidified Cuellar's reelection, though he added Cuellar probably would have survived anyway.
- "The indictment has been hanging over his head for a long time...that would have been the thing that would have prevented him from being reelected," he said.
State of play: Republicans point to 2024's GOP inroads among Latino voters across the region and argue those trends will continue in 2026 and beyond — although polls this year have suggested some of those gains have been lost.
- Cuellar posted one of the weakest Q3 fundraising hauls, and the NRCC noted he was the second-worst performer in the frontline group.
- Republicans highlighted that Cuellar votes with Democrats 70% of the time and criticize what they describe as spending on "lavish trips and expensive meals" to paint him as out of touch with his district.
- The NRCC is also betting Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), who just launched her run for Senate, will drag down Democrats in the state.
Zoom in: The day before the pardon, Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina — a Democrat-turned-Republican — announced his candidacy for Cuellar's district.
- "The NRCC is on offense and ready to help Tano Tijerina flip TX-28," the NRCC wrote in the memo.
- Republicans have long targeted Cuellar, but he has proven difficult to defeat in general elections, even under the cloud of indictment.
