The affordability crisis, once Biden's, is now Trump's

The big picture: The White House says Trump's message on affordability hasn't changed. But the urgency certainly has increased.

• Biden's White House tried to make the same argument, to no avail.
• As Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin notes, you can say inflation's under control all you want. But people only care about the prices they pay for things — and whether those prices are higher than they remember paying before.

Zoom out: The economy, in a lot of ways, is just fine.

• Growth is robust, inflation is a fraction of what it was not that long ago, and the labor market is, for now, in a (tenuous) equilibrium.

Yes, but: The vibes are awful and getting worse. The thing that doomed Democrats in 2024 hasn't gotten particularly better since.

• Corporate layoffs are at a 22-year high.
• A cup of coffee costs 20% more than it did in 2024, when then-candidate Trump promised grocery prices would go down; a hamburger, 15% more, and so on.
• A majority of Americans believe the president is to blame for rising prices, per recent polling, with a strong majority saying their groceries and electric utilities cost more than a year ago. Voters also dislike his tariffs.
• The record federal government shutdown, now in its 38th day, isn't helping.

Between the lines: Fox News exit polling in the New Jersey governor's race found voters who prioritized the economy backed Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a former prosecutor, over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman backed by Trump.

• CNN exit polling found that among Virginia voters who thought the economy was "not so good" or "poor," Democrat Abigail Spanberger beat Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, a former small business owner, by more than 50 points.
• That's usually not how it works — Republicans typically do much better on questions of the economy.
• After Tuesday, Trump's advisers repeatedly pointed out the Republicans lost in blue states, not swing states, and they faulted Ciattarelli and Earle-Sears for not having a persuasive and consistent economic message.

Friction point: Trump also has an optics problem.

• While insisting Americans aren't suffering economically, he's jet-setting all over the world, gold-leafing the White House and attending a "Great Gatsby" Halloween party at his Mar-a-Lago club, vibes that harken back to the excesses of the Gilded Age and Roaring Twenties.
• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene put it bluntly: "It's a revolving door at the White House of foreign leaders when Americans are, you know, screaming from their lungs," the Georgia Republican — who's grown estranged from Trump — told Axios recently.
• Then there's the matter of the $300 million-plus ballroom he's building at the White House after tearing down the East Wing, plus the giant arch he wants to build — lavish and opulent construction while basic food benefits aren't being paid.

Case in point: Trump boasted on Truth Social that Thanksgiving meal costs at Walmart were coming down this year, a sign his policies were working. The White House reposted that to X.

• A Community Note on X made the clarifying point that the Walmart bundle in question has 30% fewer items than last year, with major brand names mostly replaced with store brands.
• Last night, Trump said that "affordability is much better with Republicans, the only problem is Republicans don't talk about it. And Republicans should start talking about it and use their heads."

Reality check: The administration has long maintained that the benefits of Trump's economic policies will really start to show up in the economy in the first quarter of 2026.

• A post-shutdown rebound could add a little juice to that.
• The latest CPI data did show a slight easing of some prices from one month to the next, a glimmer of hope that things have peaked.

What they're saying: Trump's advisers point to a string of statements in recent months in which he's spoken and posted on social media about affordability issues and his record on the economy.

• They insist he's focused on the economy, but say they're realistic about the challenges.
• "At the end of the day, what will define the midterms is the administration's economic success and the perception of it," one adviser said.
• "If the economy is booming and is perceived as booming, it creates a headwind that will be hard for Democrats to overcome," the adviser said. "But if it's booming and it's not perceived as booming, it's going to be really hard."

The bottom line: The White House's messaging on affordability hasn't changed.

• The public's acceptance of that message is another story.