Election results' message: Americans want things cheaper
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The decisive Democratic wins on Tuesday contain a simple message to people who set economic policy: Americans really, really want stuff to be cheaper.
The big picture: Economists take comfort in the fact that the rate of inflation has come down dramatically from its 2022 peak, and that tariffs are likely to cause only a one-time price bump.
- But the level of most prices has continued drifting upward for years, amounting to a significant increase in the cost of many necessities.
- It suggests that Trump administration and Federal Reserve officials who see the war on inflation as pretty much won are out of step with voters, who want to see prices fall (though that implies economy-wide deflation, which can be highly unpleasant in its own ways).
Between the lines: Republicans learned a dire lesson about economic vibes on Tuesday: You can't convince people your policies are working if they're paying 20% more for a cup of coffee.
- The GOP, usually seen as stronger on economic questions, suddenly finds itself in the same hole Democrats have been struggling to climb out of for years.
State of play: The economy, in a lot of ways, is just fine. Growth is robust, inflation is a fraction of what it was, and the labor market is, for now, in a (tenuous) equilibrium.
Yes, but: The vibes are awful and getting worse. The thing that doomed Democrats in 2024 hasn't gotten particularly better since.
By the numbers: Headline inflation has been 3% over the last year, not a particularly scary rate. But that's on top of years of elevated inflation, such that the cumulative price change is creating ongoing sticker shock.
- Grocery prices are up 29.2% since February 2020, rents of primary residences about the same, and household energy prices are up 40%.
- This year, the subdued headline inflation masks some individual, frequently purchased items that have surged in price in 2025. Coffee costs 20% more than it did a year ago, when then-candidate Trump promised grocery prices would go down; ground beef, 15% more; and so on.
Zoom out: Fox News' exit polling of the New Jersey governor's race found voters who prioritized the economy backed Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a former prosecutor, over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a lifelong businessman.
- ABC exit polling found the economy was the top issue for Virginia voters — and they broke for Democrat Abigail Spanberger by 20 points.
The bottom line: Trump says he's solved inflation. So far, voters don't seem enthusiastic about the solution.
