Dems outpace GOP ad spending for Tuesday's elections
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Abigail Spanberger, Virginia's Democratic nominee for governor, speaks during a rally In Norfolk, Va., on Saturday. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images
Democrats are significantly outspending Republicans on advertising for high-profile elections Tuesday in Virginia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which are being watched as a preview of the 2026 midterms.
Why it matters: The party's spending — along with the states' political makeup, persistent economic concerns and historical trends benefiting the party out of power nationally — is among the reasons Democrats are favored to win most of the key races.
By the numbers: In the Virginia governor's race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has been heavily favored, and her donations reflect it.
- Spanberger and her allies have spent $50 million on ads for Tuesday's election, compared with $25 million by Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears and GOP groups, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
- In New Jersey's race for governor — which is widely seen as more competitive — the ad spending derby is closer, but Democrats still have spent more.
- Democrat Mikie Sherrill and aligned groups have invested $61 million on ad spots since June, vs. $41 million by Republican Jack Ciattarelli and aligned GOP groups.
In both races, several Democratic ads have zeroed in on President Trump, often tying their opponents to his handling of pocketbook issues.
- Taxes and crime are other top issues in the spots. A common Democratic theme in 2024 — Trump as a threat to democracy — hasn't been emphasized much because party leaders say it didn't resonate with voters last year.
Zoom in: In Pennsylvania's state Supreme Court contest — which also is seen as a bellwether ahead of the midterms, and where three Democratic justices are up for retention — the landscape is murkier. There has been little public polling and overall campaign spending is difficult to track.
- But there, too, Democrats and allied groups have out-advertised their opponents by 4 to 1 this year.
- Since August, an overwhelming majority of Democratic ad airings in the Pennsylvania contests have mentioned abortion rights, with about 20% mentioning Trump, per AdImpact.
In California, Republicans now acknowledge they're likely to lose their fight against Proposition 50, which would redraw the state's congressional map to create more Democrat-friendly districts.
- The pro-Prop 50 campaign is dominating California's ad-spending game for Tuesday's elections — $94 million this year compared with $37 million in ads opposing the measure.
The exception to the rule: Virginia's attorney general race, where Republican incumbent Jason Miyares and his allies have spent twice as much on ads for Tuesday's election as Democratic challenger Jay Jones and his supporters.
- Polls show a close race between Miyares and Jones, who has been embroiled in a texting scandal.
- As a former member of Virginia's House of Delegates in 2022, Jones texted a past colleague about hypothetically saving "two bullets" for a Republican state lawmaker. Jones has apologized for the messages.
The other side: Republicans are launching a late, multimillion-dollar voter turnout push in Virginia and New Jersey, bankrolled by Trump's political operation, Axios' Alex Isenstadt scooped Saturday.
- In what the GOP sees as a test to determine how to turn out voters in 2026 — when Trump won't be on the ballot — Trump's operation will spend $1 million-plus in each state to target Trump supporters and other Republicans who typically don't vote in off-year races.
The bottom line: Democrats are looking to prove they can win again after their devastating losses in 2024.
- "We need to win," Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin told Axios in an interview. "It's as simple as that."
