Halloween scare: Candy costs are soaring
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Trick-or-treaters may get fewer sweets this year as high cocoa prices haunt the candy aisle.
Why it matters: Cocoa prices have more than doubled since early 2024, pushing the Consumer Price Index for candy and gum up 8% and changing how people fill their candy bowls, per new reports from Wells Fargo, Empower and the National Confectioners Association.
- The candy aisle offers a bite-sized look at stubborn inflation — shrinkflation is sticking around even as cocoa supplies improve.
By the numbers: Cocoa futures hit $12,500 per metric ton late last year — the highest in decades. And though futures have eased substantially in recent weeks, it will likely take months before that translates into lower chocolate prices on store shelves.
- 57% of Americans say higher prices are changing how much they spend on Halloween candy, according to Empower's "Trick-or-Treat-onomics" report.
- U.S. sales of Halloween chocolate and candy reached $7.4 billion last year — a 2.2% increase over 2023 — according to the National Confectioners Association.
What they're saying: "Candy on shelves now was made from cocoa bought at record prices earlier this year," David Branch, sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, told Axios.
- Cocoa prices are now starting to trend down after three years of supply deficits, thanks to better weather and new crops, he said.
- "People may be ghosting on treats as rising chocolate prices are creeping into Halloween traditions," Rebecca Rickert, head of consumer insights at Empower, told Axios.
Yes, but: Despite higher prices, Americans aren't skipping sweets.
- The National Confectioners Association's survey of 1,000 people found 94% of consumers plan to share chocolate and candy for Halloween — a tradition fueling the $54 billion confectionery industry.
- 38% of consumers are hunting for sales or coupons, Empower's survey of 2,000 adults found, with 22% buying early to spread costs.
What's next: Branch said it's possible candy prices will start moderating in time for Valentine's Day 2026 as improved weather and new cocoa crops in Ecuador and Brazil boost supply.
- Until then, expect smaller bags and more caramel or white-chocolate substitutes.
The bottom line: Halloween 2025 may be one of the most expensive yet for chocolate lovers.
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