Why Valentine's Day candy costs more this year
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High cocoa prices have made the cost of Valentine's Day chocolates more bittersweet this year.
Why it matters: Chocolate treats are expected to increase 10 to 20% for the holiday and throughout 2025, David Branch, sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, tells Axios.
- The hike comes as the price of cocoa beans has more than 143% since January 2024, Brach said.
The big picture: Record cocoa prices are driven by declining cocoa production from disruptive weather amplified by climate change and crop disease in West Africa.
- "Chocolate is going to be more expensive, as nearly all major candy manufacturers have indicated they will have to raise their prices," Brach told Axios.
- Dirk Van de Put, CEO of Mondelēz International, maker of Oreo cookies, said Feb. 4 in a statement that the company is focused on navigating "unprecedented cocoa cost inflation."
Yes, but: The full impact of higher cocoa prices hasn't been felt yet.
- "Many large manufacturers buy cocoa beans nearly a year in advance, so the cost of this Valentine's Day treats won't reflect current cocoa prices," Branch said.
- The average price of chocolate is up 5.3% nationwide compared to this time last year, according to Datasembly.
Valentine's Day gifts 2025
Zoom in: Multiple surveys point to chocolate being the most popular Valentine's Day gift.
- The National Retail Federation's holiday survey found that 56% of people planned to buy candy and that Americans planned to spend $2.5 billion on the treats.
- A nationwide study of 1,000 adults conducted on behalf of Ferrero found that 59% of adults would rather receive chocolate over flowers.
State of play: Some shoppers are making alternative plans because of higher prices, Bobby Meixner, senior director of retail insight solutions at UserTesting, told Axios.
- "Consumers are getting savvier by hunting for deals, downsizing their treats, or even skipping chocolate altogether," Meixner said. "For many, nostalgia and tradition still win out, keeping their favorite brands in the cart despite higher costs."
What's next: Expect Easter candy prices to be higher than last year.
- Egg prices and supply are still expected to be impacted by the bird flu outbreak.
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