Mayors warn Trump threatens crime drops in majority-Black cities
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Baltimore police outside of Johns Hopkins Hospital in June 2025. Photo: Yasin Ozturk/Anadolu via Getty Images
Violent crime is falling in some majority-Black U.S. communities even as mayors warn that President Trump's cuts to prevention programs and threats of National Guard deployments could reverse the trend.
Why it matters: Drops in violence mark progress in cities long hit hardest by crime, but the Trump administration is using crime rates as a pretext to send troops to expand federal control over blue cities.
Driving the news: Trump announced this month he's sending National Guard troops to Memphis to address the city's crime, prioritizing Democratic-led cities where GOP governors back intervention. He also said he would send them to New Orleans.
The big picture: The nation's violent and property crime rates dropped to a two-decade low in 2024, according to new FBI data, and early 2025 numbers show homicides declining in major cities so far.
- Despite those trends, Trump has insisted that crime in many Democratic-led cities, like Washington, D.C., and Chicago, is out of control, even as crime also declines in those urban areas.
By the numbers: An Axios analysis of FBI 2024 data and preliminary 2025 numbers shows significant declines in violent crime in some majority-Black communities.
- Baltimore, a city where 62% of residents are Black, saw a 23% decline in homicides in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, stats compiled by the Major Cities Chiefs Association showed. It's now seeing its lowest homicide rate in 50 years.
- Cleveland, a city where 51% of residents are Black, experienced a sharp 28% drop in homicides during that same period.
- Memphis, a city where 65% of residents are Black and where the annual homicide rates are among the nation's highest, saw a 13% drop in homicides.
- New Orleans, a city of 364,000 people and where 58% of residents are Black, has seen homicides drop by 27%.
Zoom out: Even smaller communities like South Fulton, Ga. — a city of 111,000 outside of Atlanta and where 96% of residents are Black — experienced a 26% drop in violent crime in 2024 from the year before, FBI numbers showed.
State of play: Mayors in these cities, many who are also Black, say the declines followed aggressive anti-intervention programs, including integrated cameras, officer pay increases and community partnerships.
- Cleveland, for example, pinpointed key "hot spot" areas — roughly 4% of the city — and directed resources there, such as deploying warrant sweeps and coordinating patrols, according to Mayor Justin Bibb's office.
- Other programs include a summer basketball league in West Detroit that focuses on violence intervention.
Yes, but: FORCE Detroit, the nonprofit that runs the basketball league, lost $2 million in April after the Justice Department cut $170 million in violence intervention grants.
What they're saying: "Instead of arresting any and everyone, we focused on the small group of people who are most likely to be the victim and or perpetrator of that violence," Baltimore Mayor Brandon M. Scott recently told reporters on a call.
- Scott said that momentum is at risk now.
- Cleveland Mayor Bibb's office said he and other mayors were "warning that proposed federal cuts to violence prevention funding would undermine ongoing grassroots public safety strategies."
The other side: Some Republicans representing parts of majority Black cities endorsed Trump sending troops to reduce crime.
- "I support President Trump's decision to send the National Guard to Memphis. I thank the President for his commitment to curb violent crime," U.S. Rep. David Kustoff (R-Tenn.), told Axios in a statement.
Between the lines: Insha Rahman of the Vera Institute of Justice told Axios that violence prevention programs work best alongside Medicaid and food aid, both of which have also been cut under Trump.
- Rahman said that evidence has shown that all these initiatives, together, have helped reduce crime in many cities.
- Rahman added that it appears Trump is prioritizing "political theater" over solutions to reduce crime.
What we're watching: The economy is showing signs of slowing down, and many majority-Black communities see higher unemployment rates during downturns.
- A slowdown often leads to higher crime in many cities.
Go deeper: Where homicide rates are highest: Blue cities in red states
