Analysis of 40 cities shows violent crime dropped in 2024: report
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Crime scene unit at the aftermath of a mass shooting that injured ten and killed three in Philadelphia in July 2024. Photo: Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images
Violent crime in 40 U.S. cities dropped in 2024 to at or near pre-pandemic levels, according to a new report out Thursday that shows the COVID-era crime wave evaporating.
Why it matters: President Trump has falsely asserted that immigration caused rising crime nationwide, but the new report suggests crime fell dramatically in President Biden's last two years — even below levels of Trump's last year in office.
Driving the news: The report by the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice follows preliminary data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) suggesting the nation saw a downward trend in crime as Biden left office.
By the numbers: An examination of 40 cities found 6% fewer homicides in 2024 than in 2019.
- Similarly, sexual assault fell 26%, domestic violence decreased 11% and robbery dropped 19% in 2024 compared to 2019.
- Meanwhile, aggravated assaults rose 4%, gun assaults increased 5% and carjackings skyrocketed 25% during the same time period.
Zoom in: Of the 40 cities, 12 saw noticeable declines in homicides from 2019 to 2024, the Council on Criminal Justice analysis found
- Baltimore experienced a 40% drop in homicides during that time period, followed by St. Louis, which saw a 33% decline.
- Chattanooga, Tennessee, a city of roughly 200,000 people, experienced a 30% decrease, followed by Philadelphia, which experienced a 24% drop in homicides.
- Other homicide declines were in Buffalo, New York (20%), Richmond, Virginia (14%), and Detroit (13%).
Caveat: The report cautioned that the 40 cities are not necessarily representative of all jurisdictions in the United States.
- In addition, not all cities published data for each offense.
- The report examined yearly and monthly rates of reported crime for 13 violent, property, and drug offenses in 40 American cities that have consistently reported monthly data over the past six years.
Yes, but Council on Criminal Justice senior research specialist Ernesto Lopez tells Axios that the numbers are a good gauge of downward trends in violent crime, which is encouraging.
- "I think what it says overall is that we are returning to pre-2020 norms."
- It's hard to predict whether this downward trend will continue, he added.
Context: Violent crime rose as the pandemic forced school closures and business shutdowns.
- It spiked during Biden's first two years, then steadily dropped.
Between the lines: No one knows why crime rose during the pandemic and the immediate years that followed, though some Republicans blame the racial justice protests and pressures for police reforms.
- A Brookings Institution analysis indicates that alienated men and youths, especially in low-income areas, likely fueled the jump.
- Cities with larger numbers of young men forced out of work and teen boys pushed out of school in low-income neighborhoods in spring 2020 averaged greater increases in homicides from May to December that year than other areas, the analysis found.
What we're watching: The MCCA is expected to release next month preliminary crime numbers of nearly 70 major cities from 2024.
- Those numbers also are expected to show a drop in crime from the previous year.
