Big cities' homicide rates keep falling, data show
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
Homicides continued to decline in major U.S. cities — by more than 40% in some communities — during the first nine months of the year, according to new data that show the COVID-era crime wave evaporating.
Why it matters: The stats are the latest signs that violent crime in America is starkly different from what President-elect Trump described in the recent campaign, when he falsely asserted that immigration was sparking rising crime nationwide.
The big picture: Violent crime ticked up early in President Biden's term, but reports show it's dropped significantly since then as law enforcement agencies responded to the pandemic surge and adopted more detailed recordkeeping.
- Trump has vowed to reduce crime while attacking reports that have indicated violent crime and homicides were declining under Biden. Now, Trump will take office with crime already dropping significantly.
By the numbers: Reports from 69 law enforcement agencies showed an 18% drop in homicides in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to stats compiled by the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA).
- An Axios analysis of the MCCA data found that Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Montgomery County, Md, and Jacksonville, Fla., all had more than a 40% drop in homicides during that period.
- Cleveland, the border town of El Paso, New Orleans, Orlando, Fla., Salt Lake City and Washington, D.C., had declines in homicides of more than 30%.
The intrigue: Aurora, Colo. — a city Trump repeatedly singled out as being overrun by Venezuelan immigrant gangs — saw a 10% drop in homicides.
- Phoenix, another city targeted by conservatives as a city besieged by violent crime because of undocumented immigrants, had a 20% decline in homicides during the first nine months of this year.
- The data from MCCA's self-reported agencies did not include New York City, the nation's largest city, which did not submit crime numbers.
Stats from New York City, which are released on its own website, couldn't be compared to other cities in this report.
- But the MCCA report did include Los Angeles (the nation's second-largest city), where homicides dropped by 9% the first three months of the year.
- Homicides also fell in Chicago (8%) and Houston (13%), the nation's next biggest cities, respectively.
Zoom out: The quarterly reports from MCCA typically have been a good measure of trends that are reflected in the annual FBI crime data released a year later.
What we're watching: Trump has said he will tie federal grants to local police departments based on a requirement that they participate in his plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.
- Local agencies could opt out of Trump's plans under pressure from local residents — and face fewer resources to fight crime.
