Trump stands by as Putin and Netanyahu cross new lines
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Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photos: Sean Gallup and Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images.
President Trump loves to boast about his singular ability to control global events and leaders, but there are two notable exceptions: his ally Benjamin Netanyahu and his nominal adversary, Vladimir Putin.
Why it matters: The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have been the two dominant global crises of Trump's second term, but despite his promises to end both wars, he's seemed doubtful lately about his ability to influence the men prolonging them.
Behind the scenes: Trump has conceded to confidants that he misjudged Putin's desire for peace, but he rejects the notion he's being manipulated by Netanyahu, a source with direct knowledge told Axios.
- A senior White House official admitted there is a lot of similarity in the frustration Trump and his team feel about their inability to end the wars in Ukraine and in Gaza.
Driving the news: Trump reacted in almost identical terms Sunday when Russia launched the largest aerial attack of the war on Ukrainian cities, and on Monday when Israel bombed Qatar, a U.S. ally.
- "I'm not happy with the whole situation," Trump said of the Russian strikes, claiming once again that he's prepared to impose sanctions.
- "I'm not thrilled about the whole situation," Trump said of Israel's stunning attack, which he didn't learn about until missiles were in the air, according to U.S. officials. He privately told Netanyahu not to do it again, but stopped short of a public condemnation.
The latest: Trump was again "not happy" after 19 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace on Wednesday.
- NATO allies described that as a dangerous, intentional provocation, but Trump said it "could have been a mistake" when asked about it on Thursday.
- He sounded almost like a curious bystander in his only public comment on the incident in the first 24 hours, posting: "What's with Russia violating Poland's airspace with drones? Here we go!"
Flashback: One month ago, Trump declared that Putin would face severe consequences if he didn't agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or take major steps toward peace when they met in Alaska.
- His advisers were adamant in private that, this time, he was deadly serious.
- Instead, Trump declared the summit a success without any cogent explanation as to what was achieved.
State of play: The diplomatic track is stuck, Russia's attacks on Ukrainian civilians have increased, and no consequences have been forthcoming.
- The administration has shifted the onus for pressuring Putin onto Europe, demanding additional EU sanctions on Moscow and on China for buying Russian oil.
- "The president is prepared to impose serious consequences on Russia but is emphasizing that Europe needs to step up and do what he's doing to put pressure on these countries that are funding the war," a White House spokesperson told Axios, referring to the tariffs Trump put on India (but not China).
- Trump and his team have occasionally suggested that there's little more they can do, and Russia and Ukraine will simply have to fight it out a while longer.
When it comes to Netanyahu, Trump has an overwhelming amount of leverage.
- But on issues related to Gaza, he's been reluctant to use it — largely deferring to Netanyahu while alternating between pushing peace proposals and endorsing expanded military action.
- Hamas leaders were meeting in Doha to discuss Trump's latest peace plan when Israel attacked them, without consulting the White House.
The intrigue: That's not the only U.S. diplomatic initiative Netanyahu has undermined. The Israeli PM pushed hard for military action against Iran even as Trump was still holding out hope for a nuclear deal.
- In the end, Trump decided not to stand in Israel's way. Once it was clear the first phase was successful, he applauded the operation and then joined it.
- On both Gaza and Iran, it's often been Netanyahu in the driver's seat, with Trump occasionally criticizing his driving but not grabbing the wheel.
- Meanwhile, Trump's repeated claims that Putin would make peace to improve relations with him have yet to come to fruition.
