Holiday sales growth to slow, Deloitte forecast finds
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Holiday sales are projected to rise at a slower pace than last year, signaling more cautious spending, Deloitte said Wednesday in its holiday forecast.
Why it matters: Shoppers are expected to be more deliberate with their dollars with rising costs and trade pressures.
By the numbers: Shoppers will lay out around $1.62 trillion between November and January, Deloitte's annual forecast found, up from $1.57 trillion last season.
- Holiday sales are expected to rise 2.9% to 3.4% this year, slower than 2024's 4.2% jump, Deloitte said.
- Online sales are projected to climb 7% to 9%, hitting up to $310.7 billion, about the same growth as last year.
What they're saying: "With potential cost changes in mind, consumers may become more price-sensitive, seeking discounts, promotions or alternative products," Brian McCarthy, Deloitte principal specializing in retail, told Axios.
- That could shift demand toward lower-cost, private-label or domestic goods, McCarthy added, noting some shoppers may frontload purchases.
- Gartner retail analyst Brad Jashinsky told Axios the average shopper is going to start to see the impacts this holiday season "whether it's less supply, less variety of products, and in some cases, higher price."
The intrigue: The Deloitte forecast follows a recent consumer survey from PwC that found Americans plan to spend 5% less this holiday season — the first pullback since 2020, with gift budgets hit hardest.
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