Republicans fret about inflation's impact on 2026 midterms

Zoom in: Republicans on Capitol Hill and beyond praise Trump's recent focus on crime, but many are alarmed by internal polls and focus groups showing persistent — and increasing — concerns about prices.

• "We don't want Democrats making campaign ads about $8 Lucky Charms and grandma unable to get prescription drugs because of shortages from the tariffs," one GOP operative involved in drawing up the party's midterm plans told Axios.
• "Voters care a ton, and Republicans need to talk more about fighting this."

A conservative group aligned with congressional GOP leadership has been distributing polling data to Hill Republicans that shows 25% of voters view inflation as the most important issue facing the country.

• That's more than double the percentage of the second-ranked concern — government corruption — according to the polling by the GOP firm GrayHouse.
• Senate Republicans also are being confronted with polling that indicates voters see the party as not focused enough on rising costs and the prospect of shortages of items such as drugs, groceries and toys.
• Party operatives have conducted focus groups in which voters express support for Trump's moves on foreign policy but want more efforts to counter inflation.

A recent Economist/YouGov survey similarly showed costs as the single most important issue to voters — including among those who voted for Trump last year.

• Only 34% of all voters said they approved of Trump's handing of inflation, and more than two-thirds of all voters said they thought inflation would be the same or worse six months from now.

Behind the scenes: GOP strategists are aggressively pushing the party's 2026 candidates to talk about inflation, which they worry hasn't been part of many candidates' messaging.

• They want candidates to describe the steps the party has taken to curb inflation — namely its passage of Trump's "big, beautiful bill," which they argue will ultimately lower consumer costs.
• "The president's approval rating has been remarkably resilient on handling of the economy, immigration, and foreign policy," said Republican pollster Robert Blizzard. "But since he took office, it continues a downward trajectory on handling inflation."
• "This continued fatigue is providing an opening for Democrats to criticize the president on his signature issue of the economy," Blizzard added.

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R) — who's not seeking reelection in 2026 — believes Republicans have just a few months to show improvement on inflation before the economic trends going into the midterms are set.

• "If we don't address some of [the economic issues], I think it will create headwinds going into a cycle where you already expect headwinds with a midterm after a presidential election and the change of party in the White House," he said.

• Tillis announced his retirement in June, after Trump attacked him for voting against the president's megabill. Tillis said he opposed the tax and spending package partly because of its cuts to Medicaid.

Catch up quick: The inflation rate has dropped from 3% when Trump took office in January to 2.7%, a figure that's still higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate.

• Economists say Trump's tariffs are beginning to impact prices of consumer goods such as vegetables, which skyrocketed by 40% in July.
• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September as the labor market weakens. Trump repeatedly has pressed the central bank to cut rates, but some economists warn that might undermine the Fed's efforts to lower inflation.
• A University of Michigan survey released Friday showed a spike in year-ahead consumer expectations for inflation.
• Trump also scrapped the so-called "de minimis" exemption, which makes more than a billion small packages a year subject to tariffs. The administration expects to collect more than $10 billion — much of which will be paid by American consumers.

The other side: The White House didn't directly acknowledge such concerns when asked about the prospect of inflation hurting the GOP in the midterms. Instead, Trump's team cited cost decreases in certain economic sectors as evidence the inflationary outlook is brightening.

• That includes gasoline, which was cheaper this Labor Day weekend than in recent years.
• "President Trump pledged to end Joe Biden's inflation crisis, and the administration's supply-side policies have delivered: Inflation is trending towards an annualized rate not seen in years while the prices of gas, eggs, and other household essentials have declined," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said.