2026 midterm elections projected to set new advertising record
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The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are expected to be the most expensive on record, thanks to a competitive battle for control of Congress and a surge in streaming video advertising, according to a new projection from ad analytics platform AdImpact.
Why it matters: The bullish projections are based in part on unprecedented early spending this year, fueled by competitive gubernatorial primaries, tight House and Senate races, and contentious down-ballot issues.
By the numbers: In total, a whopping $10.84 billion is expected to be spent next year on political and issue advocacy ads, per AdImpact, up from the $8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterms.
- Next year's projected total is down from the last presidential cycle, which saw $11.2 billion in total advertising investment, but that included a whopping $3.2 billion spent solely on the presidential race.
Of note: AdImpact's data tracks the vast majority of, but not all, political and issue ad spending, which is why its projections differ from those made by some large global ad agencies.
- Its report includes spending across broadcast, connected TV, local cable, radio and satellite networks.
- It also tracks spending across most major digital platforms, such as Facebook, Google, Snapchat and X, but it does not include digital spending on other websites across the open web, or on some smaller mediums, like direct mail.
Zoom out: Next year's record investments are driven in part by an increase in spending on connected TV (CTV) advertising, or streaming.
- Streaming advertising is the only medium expected to outpace 2024 spending, with $2.48 billion expected to be invested.
- Broadcast television is expected to continue to make up the majority of political ad spending next year, but more money has been shifting to CTV as viewers flock to streaming and campaigns take advantage of the relatively unregulated medium.
- CTV is expected to account for nearly half as much spending as broadcast television, which is a huge increase from 2022, when CTV spending was equivalent to roughly a quarter of broadcast TV spending.
How it works: AdImpact's record midterm projections are based in large part on record investments happening in 2025.
- So far this year through Aug. 26, $900 million has been spent on political advertising in the U.S., that's up from $657 million in 2023 and $572 million in 2021.
- Spending on next year's House and Senate races is also outpacing previous off-cycle years, with a whopping 21% of all political and issue ad spending targeting Congress so far this year, compared to 5% in 2023 and 17% in 2021.
- In total, congressional races are expected to draw a record $5 billion in advertising spending as Republicans look to maintain control of both chambers.
- Early spending suggests increased investments in tight Senate races across states like Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina. Spending on House races is expected to surpass $2 billion for the first time next year.
The big picture: A lot more money is being spent on state races and ballot measures amid congressional gridlock at the national level.
- Next year, state legislature ads are expected to reach $700 million in spending, up 19% from 2024, per AdImpact. Seven states are expected to see more than $50 million in state race investments, including Florida, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas and Virginia, up from four states in 2024.
- Competitive gubernatorial races in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Virginia will account for nearly one-third of all gubernatorial ad spending.
The bottom line: Some analysts had predicted that spending on issue advocacy would eventually start to slow as Congress became more gridlocked, but AdImpact's new projections suggest investments in competitive congressional and statewide races will help offset any slowdowns in issue spending at the national level.
