Wave of exits testing House Freedom Caucus' staying power

• The HFC is struggling to reconcile loyalty to President Trump with its own budget-cutting priorities — and the former often takes precedence.
• That's raising doubts about whether the group can remain an independent force on the party's right flank, rather than increasingly, after some grumbling, caving to Trump.

Driving the news: At least six of the HFC's most high-profile members are eyeing departures, sparking questions about who, if anyone, will fill the void.

• Rep. Chip Roy, one of the group's biggest agitators, is running for state attorney general in Texas.
• Three other especially vocal members — Reps. Byron Donalds (Florida), Ralph Norman (South Carolina) and Andy Biggs (Arizona) — are mounting gubernatorial bids.
• Rep. Barry Moore is running for Alabama's open Senate seat, while there have been reports that Rep. Andy Ogles is jockeying for a Senate appointment if Marsha Blackburn's bid to be Tennessee's governor is successful.

Several other HFC members, including Rep. Scott Perry (Pennsylvania) and caucus chair Andy Harris (Maryland), could face tough reelection battles in 2026.

• Internal strife has further thinned the group's ranks: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (Florida) decided to leave the HFC in March, while the group voted last summer to kick out Rep. Warren Davidson (Ohio) for breaking with its leadership, prompting Rep. Troy Nehls (Texas) to resign in protest.
• Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was kicked out in 2023 after publicly feuding with fellow HFC members over her support for then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Catch up quick: The Freedom Caucus emerged in 2015 as a band of conservative hardliners who prided themselves on bucking leadership to achieve their goals.

• Their relentless opposition helped push then-Speaker John Boehner into early retirement that year, and their support was key to installing Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as Boehner's successor.

To win the speaker's gavel in 2023, McCarthy agreed to a series of HFC demands that effectively handcuffed his ability to lead.

• He granted plum committee assignments and lowered the threshold for a motion to vacate the speaker's post — the concession ultimately led to his demise.
• Current Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has faced his share of clashes with the HFC's roughly three dozen members, but so far has managed to keep rebellions from threatening his job or preventing major bills from passing.

The big picture: While HFC members have continued to use delay tactics and threats, they've rarely changed outcomes during Trump's second term — and Johnson has frequently leaned on the president to defuse standoffs.

• Trump last month was deeply engaged in helping Johnson flip all but one conservative GOP holdout during the debate over his "big, beautiful" tax and spending bill, paving the way for its passage.
• HFC members delayed late-night votes on the legislation in pursuit of concessions, but those never materialized.

The other side: Caucus members argue that their demands for deeper spending cuts pushed the bill further to the right, even though no changes were made as a direct result of their last-minute tactics.

• The bill will add $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office estimates.

Days later, Freedom Caucus members staged a rebellion over legislation to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers — but once again acquiesced after receiving only an assurance that their demands would be addressed in the future.

The intrigue: Republicans gripe that the HFC often caves after wining and dining from the White House.

• "They do this every time — every dadgum time," Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told Politico after HFC members folded on the "big, beautiful bill."
• For HFC members, the risk is clear: Push too far, and incur the president's wrath, or even a possible Trump-backed primary challenger.
• They only need to look as far as former HFC chair Bob Good, who lost his House seat last year after he backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump in the presidential primary.

Yes, but: Conservatives hope that younger HFC members will step up as established ones depart, with sources noting that the group has weathered big departures before, including DeSantis and former chair Mark Meadows.

• "We not only survived, we thrived," a source familiar with the group told Axios.
• The Freedom Caucus has a "deep bench," one source said, pointing to newer members such as Texas Reps. Keith Self and Brandon Gill.

What's to watch: The government funding fight that looms large in September will provide a fresh litmus test of the HFC's clout.