Trump's quiet progress in Syria and Lebanon

The big picture: They're part of a string of low-profile diplomatic breakthroughs, such as the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal signed in Washington three weeks ago, even as Trump struggles to get a deal in Ukraine and Gaza.

• A U.S. official noted a pattern: the progress was made without much personal intervention by Trump, but by envoys invoking his name and convincing countries they'll improve their standing by making a deal.
• "2025 is a year of opportunity for Trump to make peace, because leaders around the world see Trump as super strong and want to be on his good side. Now, Trump can be the most effective in his diplomacy. But every day that passes, this superpower diminishes," the official said.

Zoom in: Trump's team decided to give strong backing to two new leaders: Syria's militant-turned-president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and Lebanon's president and former army chief, Joseph Aoun.

• Their governments came to power after the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the defeat of Hezbollah by Israel, respectively.

• Trump made a surprise announcement in May that he would lift U.S. sanctions on Syria, and then appointed U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack — Trump's close friend for 40 years — as envoy to Syria.
• Barrack was given the thorny tasks of rebuilding U.S.-Syria relations, stabilizing the situation in the country, and working on a potential peace deal between Syria and Israel.

Friction point: Adding to the difficulty, Israel bombed Damascus in July and clashed with Syria's armed forces near the southern Syrian city of Suwayda.

• Barrack and Secretary of State Marco Rubio managed to contain that crisis by putting the brakes on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and brokering a fragile ceasefire.
• Weeks later, Barrack convened a trilateral meeting in Paris with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani not just about Suwayda, but also a deeper peace process between the countries.
• It was the first high-level diplomatic meeting between the countries since Bill Clinton oversaw peace talks in 2000.
• When Barrack held a second trilateral last Tuesday, Syria's state news agency published a brief report about it — the first public acknowledgment by Syria of engagement with Israel in more than 25 years.

What they're saying: "Israel and Syria are both discussing in good faith a potential security agreement. They have mutual intent and desire but at the moment, there is still more work to do. Constructive dialogue between these nation states is the on ramp to a long-lasting understanding that will be the preface to stability and prosperity in the region," Barrack told Axios.

Behind the scenes: During that meeting, the Israeli and Syrian ministers discussed the establishment of a humanitarian corridor to Suwayda to deliver aid from Israel to the Druze community there.

• A U.S. official said the parties also discussed a new security deal to replace the 1974 Israel-Syria separation of forces agreement — a potential first step towards normalization.
• While no deal has been reached yet, the ongoing talks are a significant step for both countries. Unlike the countries that have signed onto the Abraham Accords so far, Syria has fought several wars with Israel since 1948.
• "The meeting was good, constructive and respectful," a U.S. official said. "Each side raised its concerns, and both made clear they want to stabilize and calm down the situation in southern Syria. More work needs to be done. But there is no hostility or anger, and both sides want to reach understandings."

Barrack was also handed the Lebanon file two months ago. The assignment was to strengthen the new Lebanese government, push it towards disarming Hezbollah and build foundations for future normalization with Israel.

• The U.S. envoy gave the Lebanese government a proposal to permanently end the war with Israel, as the ceasefire reached in November 2023 has never been fully implemented.
• Three weeks ago, the Lebanese government launched a process to address the key U.S. demand: disarming Hezbollah.
• For now, the Cabinet has only asked the military to draft a plan to disarm militant groups. But even that was unprecedented in a country where Hezbollah has been a leading military and political force for decades.

The latest: Barrack and U.S. diplomat Morgan Ortagus are now asking the Israeli government to reciprocate by scaling down its strikes in Lebanon, and starting a gradual withdrawal of its remaining forces from southern Lebanon.

• The two U.S. diplomats visited Israel on Sunday and met Netanyahu, Dermer, and Israel's defense and foreign ministers, according to Israeli and U.S. officials.
• They stressed the necessity of "creating positive momentum," an Israeli official said. The Israeli side expressed willingness to take some of the steps the U.S. is requesting, but said progress would depend on the ability of Lebanon's military to rein in Hezbollah.
• Barrack and Netanyahu also discussed the negotiations with Syria on a security agreement.

On Monday, Barrack and Ortagus traveled on to Beirut to meet Lebanese officials.

• Shortly before they arrived, Netanyahu issued a statement praising the Lebanese government's move toward the disarmament of Hezbollah by the end of 2025 as a "a momentous decision."
• "In light of this important development, Israel stands ready to support Lebanon in its efforts to disarm Hezbollah and to work together towards a more secure and stable future for both nations," Netanyahu said.
• "If the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) take the necessary steps to implement the disarmament of Hezbollah, Israel will engage in reciprocal measures, including a phased reduction of IDF presence in coordination with the US-led security mechanism."

The bottom line: Both processes are a long way from fruition. But while the early progress has flown under the international radar, it's also demonstrated Trump's sway among officials in the region.