Putin visits U.S. for Trump summit as a peer, not a pariah
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Putin in Moscow in May. Photo: Alexei Danichev/RIA Novosti via Getty
For President Trump, today's summit in Alaska is all about "the first couple of minutes" — that's how long it'll take to know whether Vladimir Putin is serious about peace.
- Putin, by contrast, seems to be taking a longer view.
Why it matters: For the Russian leader, this summit is about more than a ceasefire — more even than Ukraine. He'll visit the U.S. as a peer, not a pariah, with an opportunity to nudge superpower relations onto a more favorable course.
- But he'll also have to contend with Trump's desire for immediate results.
Breaking it down: Seen from Washington, the summit is a chance for Trump to press Putin to finally agree to a ceasefire and open peace negotiations.
- Trump said Thursday that he wants a follow-up summit with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky immediately afterwards, ideally while they're still in Alaska.
- He told Fox News radio that his goal was "getting peace fast," and he expects this meeting to produce results, though perhaps not an immediate ceasefire.
The other side: This is Putin's first meeting with a U.S. president since 2021 — before the full-scale invasion — and his first time on U.S. soil in a decade.
- He'll have a chance to repair his fraying relationship with Trump and try to influence his thinking on any number of key issues.
- "Putin will strongly promote the idea that the U.S. and Russia are two great nations that should maintain good relations regardless of local conflicts," predicts Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.
Case in point: While Trump's team has talked almost solely about Ukraine in the run-up to Anchorage, Putin's adviser Yuri Ushakov said "economic cooperation" was also on the agenda. Putin is bringing along his finance minister and the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund.
- After Trump declared that a ceasefire is his goal, Putin floated an agreement ... on nuclear arms control.
Yes, but: Putin, who praised Trump's "energetic and sincere efforts" for peace on Thursday, will also come prepared to discuss Ukraine.
- Ukrainian and European officials worry he might convince Trump to accept some of his demands or territorial claims.
Many Russia analysts believe he's in no rush whatsoever to sign a deal, with his troops gaining ground and likely to outnumber and outgun the Ukrainians into the foreseeable future.
- While Zelensky is under growing domestic strain, and Trump has limited time and even less patience, "the only time pressure on Putin is biological," Carnegie Russia fellow Alexander Baunov notes.
- Trump's threats of secondary oil sanctions "will not trouble the Kremlin," Russian foreign policy expert Alexander Gabuev writes in the Economist. "If they hit Russia at all, such measures would take time."
Between the lines: The summit is hardly risk-free for Putin. If he won't budge, Trump could unleash new measures to inflict economic pain or go to new lengths to arm Ukraine.
- Trump's advisers insist they're ready to "crush" the Russian economy if needed.
- Trump himself put the likelihood of failure in Anchorage at 25%.
Behind the scenes: Ukrainian officials are bracing for virtually any outcome from Anchorage — for Trump to call Zelensky over to Alaska, or freeze him out once again.
- The general view, one official said, is that anything Trump declared ahead of the meeting may not reflect what actually happens once he gets in the room with Putin.
What to watch: While the doors will be closed during those crucial opening minutes, we'll get a sign of how things went when the leaders emerge to address the media.
- Trump said he expects to hold a joint press conference if things go well. If they don't, he'll walk out alone.
Go deeper: What to know about the Alaskan military base hosting Trump and Putin
