The 8 unanswered questions in Trump's trade war
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President Trump at the White House. Photo: Bonnie Cash/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The trade war is approaching the end of the beginning — but market watchers say there's still a long list of unanswered questions that investors and businesses need to be resolved.
Why it matters: After months of on-and-off-and-back-on, tariffs seem firmly in place now, but that's still not helping executives gain the certainty they crave.
The big picture: TD Cowen Washington Research Group managing director Chris Krueger, in a note Monday morning, lays out eight open trade questions where a resolution is still pending:
- 🚚 New transshipment rules — Trump threatened an additional 40% tariff on goods transshipped, or sent from one country to another before being sent to the U.S. But when that takes effect, and what goods qualify, are still to be determined.
- 🇨🇳 China tariff pause — The pause on 145% tariffs against China is due to end Aug. 12. When and if that's extended will be crucial for markets.
- 🇨🇦 USMCA — The administration says the trade compact with Canada and Mexico will be renegotiated, again, but not until next year.
- 💊 Section 232 probes — These sectoral investigations on goods like lumber, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals could come at any time and bring with them substantial new levies.
- 🧾 Details on trade deals — In recent days confusion about what the U.S. actually agreed to with partners like Japan and the EU has roiled markets. Until deals are actually on paper, uncertainty will linger.
- ⚖️ IEEPA court case — It's been almost two weeks since a federal appellate court heard arguments on whether to preserve or overturn a lower-court ruling tossing out most of Trump's tariffs. Whatever and whenever they rule, expect a stop at the Supreme Court next.
- 🇷🇺 Russia secondary tariffs — Trump has threatened huge tariffs on buyers of Russian oil but so far has only put an incremental 25% levy on India. The upcoming Alaska summit could have an impact.
- 📦 De minimis — Later this month, an exemption on tariffs for small-value packages is set to end, which could crimp U.S. purchases from foreign retailers.
What to watch: Some of these open questions, like the China and Russia matters, could be resolved as soon as this week.
- Others, like the Section 232 probes and the tariff court challenge, could be resolved at any moment, with little warning.
- Krueger described it as a "new phase of global trade policy."
The bottom line: The trade war isn't over, the battlefields are just shifting.
