Amid Trump orders to fire BLS commissioner, here's why jobs data revisions happen

Driving the news: "I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY," Trump said on Friday of BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her, without evidence, of manipulating data.

• "Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can't be manipulated for political purposes," the president wrote on his Truth Social platform.
• "McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months."
• "The Economy is BOOMING under 'TRUMP' despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates."

Employers did add just 73,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, and employment over the prior two months was indeed 258,000 lower than previously reported.

• It is among the largest two-month revisions ever, second only to May 2020 in the aftermath of the pandemic shock.

There's nothing strange, however, about the BLS revising its data.

Here's what to know about the revisions:

How the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data

How it works: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, a nonpartisan statistical agency within the Labor Department, releases the jobs report on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 am ET.

• It's one of the most important pieces of economic data that can move financial markets globally.

State of play: The reports look at the change in employment from the previous month, a figure that is updated twice more in as many months.

• The agency revises the numbers after evaluating information that wasn't available at the time of the initial report.

Why the BLS revises data

By the numbers: BLS officials survey about 629,000 work sites to project the nationwide estimate for how many jobs have been created or lost.

• Sometimes, however, businesses don't respond before the report is released. The BLS continues to take reports from those businesses, which inform the revisions published in the following two months.
• The unemployment rate, however, is not revised monthly.

What they're saying: The BLS' initial reported data is "the quick, but lower resolution snapshot of what went on in the job market for a particular month," agency officials wrote in 2012.

• The revisions, which have been conducted since 1979, can be so large that they change the perspective of the current state of economy, especially if a large company is late to report payrolls data.
• The Labor Department also recalculates seasonal factors, a statistical quirk that aims to remove the seasonal patterns — weather, holidays school schedules and the like — that can influence employment trends.

One unique factor this year: shifting population trends that might be warping the data.

• Trump's immigration and deportation policies are changing how many people are in the labor force, or in other words, have a job or are looking for work.

What to watch: There are also annual revisions to job figures, which are also based on more complete information after it becomes available.

• The BLS adjusts its estimates for payrolls to reflect official tax data that wasn't available at the time of initially reporting monthly numbers.
• The revisions can be significant: The first for 2024 showed the economy added 818,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March.

Revisions aren't partisan, or a conspiracy

Flashback: Public figures and social media commentators have previously suggested that the monthly jobs figures are "fake," pointing to the revisions as evidence.

• Yes, but: There's no conspiracy. The revisions aren't political — they're a form of more thorough data collection.