Behind the Curtain: Losing by winning

This paradox is unfolding in what could be the very best chapter of his presidency, before tariffs push prices higher or midterms pose risks to his GOP majorities.

• And it's being aggravated by the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, which has exposed rare cracks in Trump's decade-old MAGA movement.

What the polls say: One poll is meaningless. But a bunch of credible polls, showing the same thing, are worth paying attention to. And almost all of them show big majorities opposed to provisions of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" ... and harsh immigration crackdown ... and high tariffs ... and pardons for Jan. 6 convicts ... and wild improvisation with Russia.

• Trump was underwater (more unpopular than popular) on issue after issue in a CBS News/YouGov poll out Sunday, with broad disapproval on his handling of the economy: 70% of those polled said his administration wasn't doing enough to lower prices, and 61% said it was putting too much focus on tariffs.

On the administration's deportations of immigrants in the U.S. illegally, the CBS News/YouGov poll found overall support dropping 10 points over the past five months (59% to 49%). The GOP base remains overwhelmingly supportive, but a CNN poll found a 10-point increase (45% to 55%) in U.S. adults who say Trump has gone too far on deportations.

• Some Trump advisers believe the deportations are more popular than polls reflect, based on some people's unwillingness to tell pollsters their true views on the issue.

On Trump's megabill, an AP-NORC poll found more adults think the new tax and spending law will benefit the wealthy (64%) than think it helps the middle class or "people like you" (51% each). The percentage who approved of Trump's handling of government spending (38%) was down 8 points from March.

• Trump's handling of the Epstein case presents the latest — and so far greatest — threat to his public image: A new YouGov poll gave Trump a net rating of -34, his worst on any major issue this term. The backlash has dragged on for more than three weeks, fueled by Trump's escalating conflict with his own MAGA base.

Zoom in: Buyer's remorse appears especially concentrated among Gen Z voters, whose extraordinary shift toward Trump in 2024 spawned existential panic inside the Democratic Party.

• Trump's net approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds has plummeted to -40 since inauguration, down from roughly even, according to pollster G. Elliott Morris.

Reality check: Unhappiness with Trump hasn't turned into popularity for Democrats. In a CNN poll out last week, just 28% of Americans had a favorable view of the Democratic Party — the low point in more than 30 years of CNN polling.

• Basically, everyone dislikes everyone and everything.

Between the lines: Some of Trump's unpopularity reflects the law of thermostatic public opinion — voters demand change, then flinch when it arrives too fast or too hard, Axios' Zachary Basu notes.

• Take immigration: With the border having gone quiet, scrutiny has turned to Trump's interior crackdown and the deportation of non-criminal migrants — including hundreds of thousands of noncitizens who are here legally and have lived in the U.S. for years.
• MAGA hardliners may love the public spectacle of "Alligator Alcatraz." But for many middle-ground voters — including podcaster Joe Rogan — the optics are too much to stomach.

In other cases, Trump set lofty expectations that haven't been met.

• The war in Ukraine, which Trump promised to end within 24 hours of taking office, rages on. So does the war in Gaza. And in a remarkable break with isolationist allies, Trump joined forces with Israel last month to bomb Iran's nuclear program.

• His pledge to "rapidly drive prices down" has also hit roadblocks: Inflation ticked up in June, complicating the Fed's path to rate cuts even before a new era of global tariffs kicks in next month.
• Trump's botched promise not to touch Medicaid could haunt the GOP for years: 10 million people are projected to lose health coverage over the next decade because of the megabill's steep cuts to federal health spending, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
• CBO says that over the next decade, the megabill is expected to add at least $3 trillion to the national debt that Republicans once cared so much about.

Behind the scenes: In private, Trump gripes about not getting sufficient credit for defying expectations and historic norms. He's imposing his will on the nation — yet the media and even MAGA fixate on the blemishes. But what if his ideas are authentically unpopular?

• A longtime Trump adviser told us the president's view is: Why don't they trust me? What more can I do?

What to watch: Trump aides are making extensive plans to showcase popular parts of the megabill — notably tax-cut extensions, plus new tax deductions for tips and overtime, and auto-interest loans for new vehicles assembled in the U.S.

• But Republicans are having trouble selling the package's popular provisions because the Epstein saga has taken over. House Republicans tell Axios' Alex Isenstadt their constituents are fixated on Epstein, not the bill.
• Trump lamented Tuesday on Truth Social: "We had the Greatest Six Months of any President in the History of our Country, and all the Fake News wants to talk about is the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax!"

The bottom line: Trump advisers tell us that what will matter for the long run is how the economy is treating everyday Americans when it comes time for midterm voting in 2026, and the choice of Trump's successor in 2028.

• Go deeper ... "Behind the Curtain: Trump's immigration peril."