"Behind the Curtain" Extra: Trump's great immigration peril
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This column by Jim & Mike is a new twist on their "Behind the Curtain" (BTC), which digs deep into the topics of highest import. We call this a BTC Extra — a living update on a transcendent topic, referring back to deeper reporting.
The politics of immigration are shifting fast — again.
Why it matters: Americans voted overwhelmingly in support of locking down the Southwest border. But now, with the border secure and deportations surging along with self-deportations, a strong majority are opposed to President Trump's tough-guy, kick-them-all-out approach to illegal immigration.
A Gallup poll out Friday shows about 70% of independents oppose Trump's approach. Only 30% of U.S. adults surveyed want immigration decreased — down 25 points from one year ago.
- A record-high 79% of those polled said immigration is good for the country, Gallup found.
The big picture: Trump recognizes it's problematic — politically and practically — to deport people who came here illegally but now work and pay taxes.
- But Trump's in a real jam with his MAGA base, which opposes amnesty for anyone here illegally, even if they hold jobs, pay taxes and commit no crimes after arriving.
Between the lines: That makes an easy compromise — like a way for those playing by the current rules to stick around — quite difficult for Trump. So it's unlikely he'll back down anytime soon — unless the politics grow truly untenable.
- Trump had second thoughts about Stephen Miller's maximalist approach after hearing from Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and business leaders about the economic impact of the raids, Axios' Brittany Gibson reports.
Trump's current solution: Make it easier to bring in new temporary immigrants to wash dishes or pick vegetables and fruits. We've previewed this growing jam in two previous columns:
- Trump's rising problem with businesses dependent on workers here illegally.
- Trump would need to overcome 40 years of precedent to truly oust all undocumented immigrants, even those vital to service businesses.
Axios White House reporter Marc Caputo just detailed a workaround to please worried farmers and hospitality businesses: Speed up visas for new temporary, migrant workers.
- The administration hopes employers will make major use of the new program as mass deportations continue to thin unauthorized labor from the workforce. But it's not clear it'll be enough to mitigate business fears.
The bottom line: Axios' Stef Kight points out that polling shows Americans have more nuanced views about immigration than the political conversation reflects. And both parties struggle to find policies that don't lose the public.
- Go deeper ... "Behind the Curtain: Trump's deportation gut-check."
