Inside Trump's Patriot missile plans for Ukraine

Driving the news: "We are going to have to send more weapons to Ukraine. Defensive weapons, they have to defend themselves," Trump told reporters during a Monday evening meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

• "At President Trump's direction, the Department of Defense will send additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to secure a lasting peace," the Pentagon said later Monday night.
• Still, Trump and his team are reluctant to part with many Patriot interceptors. He wants the Europeans to send more of their own money and materiel as well.

Driving the news: Trump's change of heart started to become clearer on Friday when he spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in what both sides said was their best phone call since Trump assumed office.

• Trump told Zelensky he wants to help Ukraine's air defenses but stressed that the U.S. had to pause the latest weapons shipment to review its own stockpiles, according to two sources briefed on the call.
• Two sources said Trump promised to immediately send 10 Patriot interceptors — fewer than had been planned in the paused shipment — and help to find other means of supply.
• The day prior, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz had called Trump to ask him to release the Patriot interceptors that were paused while en route to Ukraine, a German official said.

Friction point: The official said Merz told Trump that Germany is ready to buy Patriot batteries from the U.S. and send them to Ukraine.

• For his part, Trump suggested Germany sell one of its Patriot batteries to Ukraine, according to three sources familiar with the discussion. They said the U.S. and European allies would split the cost of the purchase.
• Trump and Merz didn't reach an agreement, but officials say the discussion is ongoing. German officials contend Germany has given a very high percentage of its Patriots to Ukraine — even more than the U.S. in relative terms.

The big picture: With stocks dwindling amid multiple ongoing wars, there's increasing concern among NATO countries about giving up munitions — particularly interceptors — more quickly than they can be produced.

• "Getting a Patriot missile isn't like going to Walmart and picking 10 off the shelf and going home," one Trump adviser told Axios.
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth identified available Patriot missile batteries in Germany and Greece that the U.S. would prefer to finance and send to Ukraine. "Those conversations have been ongoing for months," the Trump adviser said.
• The U.S. recently conducted its largest-ever Patriot missile salvo to defend U.S. troops in Qatar from an Iranian attack.

Reality check: Trump isn't just concerned about stockpiles. He's told confidants that "this isn't my war," but it will be if he starts sending arms to Ukraine.

• Trump overcame some of his reticence to use military force when he bombed Iran's nuclear sites, however, and some advisers think he can similarly find a justification for sending Ukraine purely defensive weaponry.

Zoom out: Trump's thinking is informed by his mounting exasperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who unleashed a massive air barrage on Ukraine after hanging up with the U.S. president on Thursday.

• By contrast, Trump's call with Zelensky was friendly and productive, as was their meeting a week prior at a NATO meeting in The Hague.
• "They [Ukrainians] should feel better than they have at any point during the Trump presidency," said a source familiar with the discussions. "Putin was a jerk."

The intrigue: At The Hague, Trump also had a notable exchange with BBC reporter Myroslava Petsa, a Ukrainian, who asked him about sending Patriots to her homeland, where her husband is a soldier.

• "It made an impression," said one source who spoke with Trump.
• But another cautioned that Trump might have been suspicious and asked others, "was that a setup?"

What's next: Zelensky and his aides will meet in Rome later this week with Trump's envoy Keith Kellogg. They hope to get more clarity on the future of U.S. weapons shipments.

The bottom line: "This is the president's administration. What he decides, we do," a Trump adviser said. "We're waiting on him."