A decade after Obergefell, LGBTQ+ rights remain under threat
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
It's been ten years since the Supreme Court's landmark Obergefell v. Hodges decision legalized same-sex marriage across the U.S. But Jim Obergefell, the case's lead plaintiff, says the fight is far from over — marriage equality remains under threat.
The big picture: Five months into Trump 2.0, LGBTQ+ communities are facing a surge in political and legal challenges.
- Still, advocates and individuals are drawing strength from a long history of resilience — and fighting back through court challenges, community gatherings and celebrations of Pride.
But Obergefell says the current political climate casts a shadow over the 10th anniversary of marriage equality.
- "Never did I expect in 10 years that I would be worried about Obergefell being overturned, that I would be worried about the loss of marriage equality, that I would be worried about so many rights being taken away," Obergefell told Axios.
- "While it's something to celebrate that we've made it to 10 years, it's just wrong that we're worried about it making it to 11."
Zoom in: In recent years, anti-LGBTQ+ bills have flooded statehouses, and President Trump's victory has emboldened the GOP's anti-trans blitz.
- Shannon Minter, the National Center for LGBTQ Rights' legal director who served as lead counsel in a landmark California marriage equality case, said he's never seen a moment of such "intense, comprehensive, vicious backlash" against the community.
- Jenny Pizer, the chief legal officer at Lambda Legal and a driving force in the fight for marriage equality, hears the "devastating echoes of past attacks" today. But the "magnitude and the speed" of the administration's actions makes this moment singular.
At the same time, corporations are going quiet.
- Amid corporate America's widespread walk-backs of diversity, equity and inclusion efforts, a number of prominent businesses pulled support from 2025 Pride events.
Between the lines: The Respect for Marriage Act, which President Biden signed into law in 2022, ensures federal recognition of same-sex and interracial marriage. But it does not prohibit states from taking steps to ban or restrict same-sex marriage if Obergefell were overturned.
- Minter says he does not foresee the decision being directly reversed, but he fears attempts to undermine the full scope of marriage equality, leading toward the kind of "skim milk" marriage the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg warned about in the Windsor case.
- Pizer notes, "our Supreme Court right now is more conservative than it's been in a very, very long time." And she sees the Dobbs decision as evidence the high court is "willing to defy what the American people want based on legal arguments that many of us think are completely specious."
What he's saying: "Even if it doesn't happen, we need to be active," Obergefell said. "We need to be involved in fighting to protect it, fighting to protect all the progress we've made in this country for civil and human rights."
Zoom out: Even as these challenges mount, LGBTQ+ visibility and influence are rising nationwide. The number of U.S. households headed by same-sex married couples jumped from 425,357 to 774,553 from 2015 to 2023, per Census data cited by Pew Research Center.
- The number of elected officials who identify as LGBTQ+ has nearly tripled since 2017. In 2025, Sarah McBride became the first openly transgender member of Congress, representing Delaware.
- LGBTQ+ leaders have served in Cabinet-level roles under both Biden and Trump, and several states have elected LGBTQ+ governors, representatives or senators.
By the numbers: A decade since the decision, a steady majority of Americans support same-sex marriage.
- In July 2015, 58% of U.S. adults said marriages between same-sex couples should be recognized by the law as valid and with the same rights as heterosexual marriages, according to Gallup polling. By May 2025, that share had grown to 68%.
- Recent polling from a trio of firms on behalf of Centerline Liberties and Project Right Side found that even a majority of Republicans (56%) agree with the right to marry when a neutral option was not provided.
- Data from the Redbud Consulting, Echelon Insights and National Research survey found that many people's growing support for same-sex marriage is "primarily driven by personal interactions with gay friends, family, and neighbors."
But with progress, "backlash is a given," Obergefell said. As he did a decade ago, he keeps fighting — for the civil rights trailblazers who came before him, for the LGBTQ+ kids growing up in small towns across the country, and for his late husband John Arthur, whose love inspired historic progress.
- "In 10 years, I don't want there to be a need for any organizations fighting for equality, fighting for rights," he says.
- "If I'm going to dream, I'm going to dream big."
