Gen Z's stunning partisan split
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
America's youngest voters are far likelier to vote Republican than their older siblings.
Why it matters: Generation Z may be better understood as two distinct sub-generations — divided, in large part, by how they experienced the shock of COVID-19.
- Stunning stat: The latest iteration of the Yale Youth Poll found extraordinary 18-point partisan gap between younger and older members of Generation Z. When asked whether they'd pick a Democratic or Republican candidate in the midterm elections, voters age 22–29 favored Democrats by 6.4 points, while those age 18–21 favored Republicans by 11.7 points.
Zoom in: Rachel Janfaza — a youth political analyst and writer of The Up and Up, a newsletter about Gen Z — breaks down "Gen Z 1.0" and "Gen Z 2.0" based on how old they were during pandemic lockdowns and the rise of TikTok.
- Gen Z 1.0 graduated high school before COVID. They quarantined in college dorms or apartments with friends and came of age during President Trump's first term — shaped by the Women's March, gun control rallies, and the Black Lives Matter movement.
- Gen Z 2.0 was in high school or middle school during lockdowns, isolating at home with family and cut off from peers. The backlash to COVID-era policies pushed many younger voters right. And because they entered adulthood under President Biden, "counter-culture" often meant aligning with MAGA, Janfaza says.
Between the lines: Older Gen Z-ers came of age on platforms like Instagram and Twitter. Younger Gen Z-ers are native to TikTok.
- 9% of young adults said they got their news from TikTok in 2020, according to Pew Research. By 2024, that figure had surged to 39%.
- Trump's campaign seized on that shift early, reaching young voters on TikTok months before Biden or then–Vice President Harris. Many younger men were already plugged into content from MAGA-friendly figures like Theo Von, Joe Rogan and Dave Portnoy, who went on to host Trump on their platforms.
Zoom out: As a whole, Americans under 30 still lean Democratic. But the partisan split within Gen Z came into sharp focus during the 2024 election.
- White men under 20 voted for Trump at higher rates than their late-20s counterparts — and even more than white Baby Boomer men, according to research from Democratic polling group Blue Rose Research.
What to watch: Since taking power, Trump has lost significant ground with 18 to 29-year-olds in particular, according to an analysis of polls by data journalists G. Elliott Morris.
- Majorities of young people say they oppose Trump administration policies and moves like ICE raids in hospitals and churches, blanket tariffs and broad Jan. 6 pardons, per Harvard's national youth poll.
