Scoop: Inside Trump's polling on the "big, beautiful bill"
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
President Donald Trump takes the stage during a rally with U.S. Army troops. Photo: Anna Moneymaker via Getty Images
The White House provided Senate Republicans with the raw numbers on how the different elements of the "one big, beautiful bill" are playing with the public, insisting that many of the proposals are 80-20 issues.
Why it matters: The detailed polling amounted to an argument for why senators should pass the bill – and then a roadmap on how to sell it.
- But it also showed that some proposals are massively more popular than others, indicating that much of the political battle about the bill will be a contest on how to define it.
Between the lines: The poll largely focused on topics that Republicans want to discuss, like taxes and immigration.
- Democrats will focus on the bill's other elements, like its deep cuts to Medicaid.
- White House deputy chief of staff James Blair presented on the polling, as Punchbowl News first posted on X.
✈️ 🍼 By the numbers: The most popular parts polled at more than 80% approval, according to an image of one of the presentation slides obtained by Axios.
- Modernizing air traffic control: 82% in favor to 10% opposed
- Providing a 15% tax cut to working families: 82% - 10%
- Increasing the child tax credit to $2,500: 81% - 12%
- Ending taxes on tips polled 77% - 18%
- Cutting taxes on overtime pay: 74% - 18%
💰🚔 The least popular elements polled at more than 50% support:
- Making Trump's tax cuts permanent to avoid a 22% tax increase: 53% to 34% opposed
- Hiring more ICE/border patrol officers: 55% - 40%.
- Ending federal coverage of gender-affirming care: 54% - 39%.
- Ending Medicaid benefits for unauthorized immigrants: 52% - 39%
Zoom out: Fundraising, and the Republicans challenges in keeping pace with the Democrats, was also discussed in the meeting.
- Despite the NRSC breaking records, NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) also warned that senators' fundraising — for the committee and their own campaigns — remained behind Democrats, according to sources familiar with what was said.
- He pointed out how GOP committees are being out-raised by their Democratic counterparts at the House, Senate and national level.
- "We've always been behind the Democrats," Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told us, adding, "if you look at the numbers, Tim has been doing a great job."
The bottom line: The midterm elections are still a long way away, but GOP leaders are making the case for why passing Trump's bill will provide the strongest case for why they should retain the majority.
