MAGA's blue-collar base waits patiently for populist payoff

• Trump's blue-collar base remains fiercely loyal, energized by his hardline stances on immigration, trade and culture — and patient that his economic "Golden Age" will materialize.
• But so far, the clearest financial rewards of Trump's tenure are flowing upward — to wealthy donors, family members, insiders and the president himself.

The big picture: Trump's inner circle has shattered norms around profiting from the presidency, dulling public outrage to the point where even the most brazen access schemes draw only fleeting scrutiny.

Take crypto: The top holders of Trump's meme coin were granted an exclusive dinner last month at the president's Virginia golf club, where some paid millions for access.

• The White House refused to release the guest list, but wealthy foreigners — including a Chinese billionaire who faced SEC charges under the Biden administration — were among those revealed to be in attendance.
• Trump's sons, meanwhile, are spearheading a family crypto venture that has raked in hundreds of millions of dollars. Trump Media, the parent company of Truth Social, is raising $2.5 billion to buy Bitcoin.
• All of this — plus a flurry of lucrative real estate deals overseas — is playing out as Trump presides over U.S. foreign policy and the fate of crypto regulation.

Zoom in: Now take Trump's relationship with his donors.

• His Cabinet is the wealthiest in American history, stocked with mega-donors whose combined net worth reaches well into the billions — even discounting estranged former adviser Elon Musk.
• Trump has granted pardons or clemency to a stream of white-collar criminals and wealthy tax cheats, many of whom hired lobbyists, donated to the president or raised money on his behalf.
• The Wall Street Journal found that the biggest corporate and individual donors to Trump's inauguration later received relief from investigations, U.S. market access and plum postings in the administration.

The other side: Trump officials wholly reject the premise that the administration's policies don't benefit the working-class Americans who voted for the president en masse.

• The White House points to cooling inflation, plummeting border crossings, and the tariff-driven re-shoring of manufacturing as evidence of Trump delivering on his core promises.
• They frame his crypto push, AI acceleration and deregulatory agenda as driving forces behind a pro-growth tide that will lift all boats — including for middle- and working-class Americans.

Reality check: Inflation may remain benign for now, but there are growing signs businesses are experiencing higher prices and passing some or all of those costs directly through to consumers, Axios managing editor for business Ben Berkowitz notes.

• While companies have made encouraging public statements about re-shoring, in almost all of those cases it's too soon for any shovels to be in the ground.

What to watch: Trump's "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" is packed with populist red meat, including the extension of his first-term tax cuts, the elimination of taxes on tips and overtime, and $1,000 "Trump Accounts" for newborns.

• "All his hopes and dreams on that front are pinned to that reconciliation bill," one MAGA operative told Axios, characterizing it as "the bulk" of Trump's legislative agenda for the middle class.
• "The president expects the Senate to quickly pass the One, Big, Beautiful Bill, codifying huge tax cuts that will mean permanent savings for hardworking Americans," White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said.

Between the lines: Several independent analyses project that the wealthiest Americans would benefit most from the bill. A Penn Wharton study that found the top 10% of earners would reap 70% of the legislation's total value.

• The Congressional Budget Office projects that Medicaid work requirements and other health care cuts would leave about 11 million people uninsured by 2034. Millions could also be forced off of food stamps.
• "Medicaid, you gotta be careful," former Trump adviser Steve Bannon said on his "War Room" podcast in February. "Because a lot of MAGAs are on Medicaid, I'm telling you. If you don't think so, you are dead wrong."
• Factory investments in red districts are expected to suffer most from the bill's rollback of clean energy credits included in President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.

The bottom line: Inside the MAGA movement, there's little concern about who's getting rich as long as Trump keeps fighting the culture wars, deporting immigrants and tearing down liberal institutions.

• "It's less about the tangible benefits of tax reform and those things," said one strategist with ties to Trump's orbit. "It's more about the values — standing up for what Trump said he was going to do."
• "That's why they like him."