The lose-lose calculus of the trade war

State of play: President Trump lashed out at Walmart last weekend, after the company said it would be forced to raise prices to handle higher tariff costs.

• The retailer is the latest company to run into the buzzsaw of the White House trade agenda.

The big picture: The White House says its agenda spurs investments that benefit consumers and workers, but shifting trade policy, combined with other fast-paced changes, is creating uncertainty that's roiling almost all corners of the economy.

Zoom in: "We've been rocked very hard by the tariffs," says Jonathan Silva, co-owner of WS Game Company, an upscale board-game business that his father started 25 years ago.

• Since "Liberation Day" in April, Silva's raised prices for games, halted all shipments from China, taken a pay cut, and paused retirement benefit contributions for the Massachusetts-based company's 22 employees.
• Now that the most onerous China tariffs have been lifted, the race is on to ship inventory in the next 90 days before the holiday season. He's worried about shipping companies jacking up costs as demand spikes.
• "No matter what happens, the writing's on the wall that with an executive order, things can change on, you know, on just a random Monday."

Workers, meanwhile, haven't caught much of a break either. Small business employees, such as those working for Silva, are in a bad spot. Many more are concerned about holding on to their jobs.

• It's not just them. Tens of thousands of federal workers have been fired, with many more on deck. Those in unions are fighting to keep their right to collective bargaining.
• The harsher situation for public workers is also trickling down to the private sector, where management is newly emboldened to crack the whip, as Axios and the Wall Street Journal have reported.
• Other changes have hurt, too, like weakening agencies critical to worker protections and reducing the minimum wage for federal contractors.

As for consumers? Tariffs typically mean higher prices. The duties raise input costs for companies, making it more expensive to produce and sell goods, which means higher prices for working people.

• Nobody seems to benefit, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers tells Axios, who says the likelihood is that the tariffs "are going to create fewer good-paying jobs."

Looking for winners

Reality check: For all the dire recession warnings, the overall hard data show the economy in good shape.

• The unemployment rate is still low, and inflation is easing.

Between the lines: The White House seeks to position itself as both pro-business and pro-worker.

• The coming "big beautiful" tax bill is getting positioned as a big win for businesses and working people, who may wind up with some nice new breaks, including no taxes on tips and a higher standard deduction.
• And those easier regulations are often a win for businesses. The share of executives who say they're concerned about labor regulations fell to 56% this year, down from 73%, per a recent survey from Littler Mendelson, the employment law firm.
• In a recent press release, the White House pointed to a Wall Street Journal story that reports some small and midsize U.S. manufacturers are actually seeing increased business due to tariffs.

For the record: "The Trump administration is slashing costly regulations, lowering energy prices, cutting Joe Biden's runaway spending that sparked inflation, negotiating better trade deals, and spurring trillions in historic investment commitments, including in sectors critical to our national and economic security," White House spokesman Kush Desai says.

• "Any 'economist' who can't understand how this agenda is benefitting American workers and industries, as the data proves is already happening, should find a new profession."

The bottom line: Critics argue the small pockets of victory don't seem to outweigh the downsides.

• Some pockets of businesses want certain tariffs in place, acknowledges Heidi Shierholz, the president of the liberal Economic Policy Institute.
• But there isn't a big constituency out there who wanted them to this scale.