House Democrats add "safe" GOP seats to 2026 target list
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House Democrats' campaign arm is laying out an ambitious list of 2026 targets that includes some Republicans who have widely been considered to have secure reelection prospects.
Why it matters: It's essentially the codification of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' (D-N.Y.) newfound bullishness that Trump-induced stock market turmoil is opening the door to a potential wave election next year.
- Democrats also view over-performances ins special elections as a sign that their party is seeing the midterm enthusiasm typically enjoyed by the party out of power.
Driving the news: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's list of "districts in play" includes a whopping 35 Republican-held seats they believe "will determine the House Majority."
- That's more than the 29 districts listed as some degree of competitive by Cook Political Report.
- It's also more than the initial target list of House Majority PAC, House Democrats' primary super PAC, which has 29 seats.
- "Our Districts in Play map is more expansive than at the start of the 2024 cycle, reflecting a political environment of eroding public support for House Republicans," the DCCC said in a press release.
Details: More than a half dozen Republicans on the DCCC's list are considered to represent "safe Republican" seats by Cook.
- Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.): Emboldened by their strength in two Florida special elections last week, Democrats see the hardline conservative's 13-percentage point reelection victory last year as soft.
- Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.): The DCCC targeted her in 2018 and she won by only 4 points. She won her last two races by double digits, but Democrats have never fully taken their eyes off her suburban St. Louis-area district.
- Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.): Another 2018 target who prevailed by low single digits that year, Barr won by a whopping 26 points last year. But he is eyeing a run for Senate, and Democrats like their odds with an empty seat.
- Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.): As with Mills, Democrats think this Freedom Caucus member is a little too right for his seat.
- Reps. Max Miller (R-Ohio), Mike Turner (R-Ohio) and Mike Carey (R-Ohio): Democrats are encouraged by the fact that former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) kept last year's U.S. Senate race within a few points in each of these seats.
Zoom in: That's not to mention the many Republicans on the list whose districts are rated "likely Republican" by Cook.
- These include Rep. Robert Wittman (R-Va.), whose district is close enough to Washington, D.C. that Democrats believe DOGE's layoffs of federal workers could blow back on him.
- Also Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), who won by 12 points last year but is eyeing a run for Senate.
Between the lines: Other factors could boost Democrats in these seats as well.
- Ogles is facing an ethics probe over his campaign finance reports after the FBI seized his phone (Ogles has said he is "confident that any reporting problem was at worst an honest mistake.")
- Mills has been shrouded in scandal since February, when police officers were called to his D.C. apartment over reports of an alleged assault. He has denied any wrongdoing.
The other side: "It's a week after April Fool's Day, but the DCCC is still joking around with this laughable list in a pathetic attempt to distract voters from their party's terrible approval ratings," said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella.
- "Voters aren't buying it, and they know Democrats are too extreme, too unpopular, and totally out of touch."
