Why this year's hottest election is for a Wisconsin court seat

• The April 1 election will determine the tilt of an ideologically divided bench in a purple state where state-level decisions carry national implications for abortion rights, legislative redistricting and election laws.
• State Supreme Court races historically have been under-the-radar affairs. But they've risen to national prominence recently, accelerated by the U.S. Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn the federal right to abortion. States now determine whether to allow the procedure.

Driving the news: Although technically nonpartisan, the Wisconsin race — between Brad Schimel, a judge in Waukesha County and former GOP attorney general, and Susan Crawford, a Dane County judge — has become a proxy for national party figures seeking to exert their influence in a high-profile, off-year election.

• Roughly $30 million already has been spent on the race, which appears on pace to break — or at least rival — the record-breaking $50 million that was spent on the state's Supreme Court race in 2023.
• If Schimel wins, the seven-member court will have a conservative majority until at least 2026. If Crawford wins, the court will have a liberal majority until at least 2028. Liberals have held the majority on the court since 2023.

Zoom in: What distinguishes this year's election from the 2023 race are the donations flowing in from prominent national donors — particularly Musk, who was the biggest donor of the 2024 presidential election.

• Musk, who has become one of the most powerful people in Washington, wrote on X in January that it is "very important to vote Republican" in the Wisconsin race.

By the numbers: According to data from the tracking firm AdImpact, at least $17 million has been spent on advertising for Crawford's campaign, compared to roughly $16 million for Schimel's.

• A Musk-backed conservative nonprofit, Building America's Future, had spent more than $3 million on advertising in the race as of Friday, per AdImpact. His America PAC has spent at least $404,000 on radio ads.
• Democratic megadonor Soros donated $1 million to the Wisconsin Democratic Party in January, campaign finance filings show. Billionaire Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker donated $500,000 and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman donated $250,000.
• Shortly after these donations, the party transferred more than $2 million to Crawford's campaign, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

State of play: "It's remarkable how much national money has poured into that state, but it's all about a very competitive political environment nationally," said Michael Kang, an election law professor at Northwestern University.

• The outside spending is "another illustration of how these have transformed from pretty quiet local races to nationalized elections that in some ways feel just like a high stakes U.S. Senate race," said Douglas Keith, a senior counsel in the Brennan Center's Judiciary Program.

The intrigue: The outside donations have raised questions about possible conflicts of interest, and whether the candidates would step aside if they were to hear a case involving a donor.

• Musk's Tesla Inc. has sued Wisconsin over the company being blocked from opening new dealerships in the state, a case that could wind up before the state Supreme Court, per Wisconsin Public Radio.

What they're saying: "Republicans including billionaire Elon Musk are pouring in historic amounts of cash to buy this state Supreme Court seat because they understand the stakes as well as we do," Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee spokesperson Sam Paisley said in a statement.

• The DLCC announced this week that it was adding the state Supreme Court races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to their map of targeted races.

What to watch: Off-year elections tend to see much lower turnout than those in midterm and presidential years, but the race will provide an early test of the strength of President Trump's coalition. Trump won the state in November.

• "If you are someone who is looking forward to the 2026 or 2028 elections, ... election law takes place in the states, so if you're trying to influence the rules under which those elections take place, you might be interested in who sits on state high courts," Keith said.

Go deeper: Courts foiling GOP's late push for election changes

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Building America's Future as of Friday had spent more than $3 million in advertising in the race (not given it directly to Schimel's campaign), per AdImpact.