Trump tech forecast: turbulence

The big picture: President Trump's track record of sudden policy about-faces and unpredictable lurches governed by whim and self-interest puts CEOs in a defensive crouch.

• Some, like Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, have enthusiastically moved into the MAGA tent, joining tech billionaires like Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen. Others are standing outside but paying ritual tribute.
• Silicon Valley leaders won't shed tears, for the most part, as Trump's team disassembles Washington's half-constructed regulatory regime for AI and backs off from the Biden administration's full-court press on monopoly and competition.
• But Trump's priority of shutting the U.S.'s immigration door will directly harm the tech workforce. And the new president's vow to stifle trade with tariffs, if fulfilled, could disrupt tech's global supply chain in unpredictable ways.

Here are four trends that will shape tech's free-for-all world in the new Trump era.

1. Rail-free artificial intelligence

• Trump has already revoked former President Biden's AI executive order as part of his blizzard of day-one declarations.
• The incoming president has given no sign that he believes the government has an important role to play in regulating tech's new platform beyond assuring that conservative voices aren't limited.
• Elon Musk has long held the view that advanced AI could threaten humanity's future. But that fear does not appear to be front of mind as he tackles his mission of cutting the federal budget.

2. Unchained crypto

• Cryptocurrency investors and developers see Trump's return as the start of a new golden age: Regulators will get off their backs, and thousands of coins will bloom.
• There will likely be a burst of new experiments in blockchain-driven democracy, too.
• But the inauguration-eve floating of new meme coins for both the new president and first lady Melania Trump made clear where the biggest action will be: lots of fast money new coin issues, many of which will be soak-the-suckers pump and dump schemes.
• Even some Trump-friendly crypto insiders were uncomfortable with the brazen profiteering of the Trump-coin schemes.

• Things will get progressively crazier until another big failure on the scale of FTX causes a new bust.

3. Deals dynamo

• With regulators sidelined and vast amounts of cash sloshing around the globe, expect deal-making in tech to accelerate, even if the Federal Reserve keeps trying to hit the brakes.
• The biggest companies still face ongoing antitrust investigations and lawsuits, but they're likely to be less cautious and more opportunistic.
• Any deal that holds the possibility of enriching the president, his family or his allies will have that much extra juice.

4. Social media's "big sort"

• American internet companies and users are rapidly segregating themselves into separate "red" and "blue" environments.
• Meta's move to embrace MAGA and X's harbor for extreme right-wing voices are speeding this process, driving opponents to new rival media platforms on the other side of the political fence.
• Online, at least, this process dooms the quest for common ground and assures further estrangement of America's two parties and cultures.

The bottom line: Volatility compounds across different domains.

• What happens when autonomous AI agents, steered by blockchain-based voting, start executing deals on tribalized social-media platforms?
• Cyberpunk authors dreamed such visions as dystopias, but team Trump sees them as blueprints.