Minority groups more pessimistic heading into new Trump era: Axios Vibes poll
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Optimism for the year ahead has dropped significantly among people of color, LGBTQ+ Americans and many women as President-elect Trump returns to the White House, a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll finds.
Why it matters: The disparities between demographic groups in terms of how they're feeling heading into 2025 reflect the fact that while Trump's return fills some Americans with hope, many others are deeply concerned.
The big picture: Two-thirds (68%) of all Americans say they're more concerned about violence by U.S. citizens domestically than in years past. That share climbed slightly among women and LGBTQ+ Americans.
- 59% of all Americans say they're more concerned about the state of U.S. democracy now than in recent years.
By the numbers: 63% of Americans overall said 2025 will be better than 2024. That's barely changed from December 2023, when 66% said they were more optimistic about 2024 than 2023.
- But among Black Americans, optimism dropped from 80% to 61%.
- Optimism among Hispanic Americans fell from 78% to 67%.
- LGBTQ+ Americans' outlook dropped from 76% to 60%. AAPI respondents' optimism slipped from 67% to 60%. Women's optimism dipped from 65% to 58%.
- 68% of U.S. men said they're more optimistic about this year, compared with 67% a year ago. White Americans' optimism barely changed, now 63% compared with 65%.
Zoom in: 63% of LGBTQ+ respondents, 57% of AAPI and Black Americans, and 55% of Latinos say they're concerned about their personal safety.
- 64% of Black Americans and 61% of LQBTQ+ Americans cite concerns about their personal civil rights.
- Gen Z and Millennials also expressed outsized concerns about the safety and civil rights.
What they're saying: "It's clear that there are groups within America for whom the potential policies of the new administration are going to directly impact their lives," said John Gerzema, CEO of The Harris Poll.
Between the lines: During the campaign, Trump used racist language and anti-trans tropes and has promised to roll back some civil rights protections and programs aimed at promoting diversity and inclusion in the federal government.
- Some of his supporters are urging him to reverse an executive order issued by President Lyndon Johnson 60 years ago that targets discrimination by federal contractors.
- Trump said he would slash the Department of Education and vowed to cut funds to schools teaching elements of critical race theory or engaging in certain pro-transgender approaches.
Methodology: The findings in this Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll are based on a nationally representative sample of 2,128 U.S. adults conducted online Jan. 3-5, 2025, among which 1,337 identified were identified as employed.
- The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval.
- For this study, the data for the overall population is accurate to within +/- 2.4 percentage points using a 95% confidence level, and +/- 3.0 percentage points for respondents within the registered voters
