Well yeah, ending diversity programs probably means less diversity

Catch up quick: Last week, Meta was the latest company to cut diversity efforts, detailing a host of changes similar to other employers' moves and attributing the change to a "shifting legal and policy landscape."

• Critically, Meta said it will no longer have "representation goals," or targets for hiring from certain underrepresented groups.
• Goals are more aspirational than quotas, which are illegal. Still, companies have been turning away from them since the Supreme Court decision banning affirmative action in colleges put corporate DEI in the crosshairs.

Zoom out: The research on these goals is pretty clear: Firms that set them don't usually meet them.

• However, "they make more progress than firms that don't set them," said Frank Dobbin, a Harvard professor and leading researcher on workplace diversity.
• Over the long term "some of [Meta's] changes will probably lead to reductions in the diversity of the workforce," he said.

Flashback: Meta's goals appear to have worked. In 2019, it committed to doubling the number of Black and Hispanic employees by 2024. "We met and exceeded that goal," the company wrote in its 2022 diversity report.

• The company also gave itself a five-year target of increasing the number of underrepresented employees, including women, and in the U.S., those who identify as Black, Hispanic and Native American, as well as veterans or those with disabilities. Those numbers rose, too, the company said.
• The improvements may not have simply been about these goals. The company reported that its switch to remote work also boosted diversity. (Meta has since pulled back on work from home arrangements.)

State of play: Meta employees have told Axios' Ina Fried that they are worried about what the DEI pullback means for them personally, as well as for the company and its products.

• At the same time, there are certainly those inside Meta and corporate America, more generally, who've long bristled at diversity efforts and now feel unleashed by the changes.
• "Anyone who has a marginalized identity is probably feeling pretty nervous right now," said Rebecca Ponce de Leon, a professor at Columbia Business School who studies diversity and inequality.

For the record: Meta declined to comment for this story.

💭 Ina's thought bubble: Employees from already underrepresented groups — women, ethnic minorities and LGBTQ+ folks — will leave in greater numbers and are likely to be replaced with a less diverse group of workers.

Where it stands: That exodus might take a while. Those who are unhappy may be a bit stuck. The hiring market has slowed down, particularly in tech. (While AI employment has been a bright spot, the field is struggling with its own diversity issues.)

• Folks will stick around until they don't have to, said Massella Dukuly, head of workplace strategy at Charter, a future-of-work media and research company. "Right now people are fearful of losing their jobs."
• As it happens, on Tuesday, Meta told employees it was firing the lowest-performing 5% of its staff, roughly 3,600 people. (The roles will be backfilled, a Meta source confirmed to Axios' Sara Fischer.)

Reality check: Many benefits that are effectively DEI — such as paid leave for parents that helps women stay in the workforce — have not yet gone away.

• Meta will still have employee resource groups, where workers of different identities can connect.

Yes, but: "It's too soon to say with any confidence what we'll see in terms of retention and attrition," said Joelle Emerson, the cofounder of diversity consulting firm Paradigm. "I think a lot of this will come down to how these companies actually implement their new approaches."

• She's not convinced companies are actually pulling back on the practices that matter most for employees. "A lot of this seems like semantics, and a desire to move away from the politically charged acronym DEI."

What to watch: It's still early days.

• Right now the vibes are anti-DEI, as noted opponent Donald Trump is headed back to the White House.
• But it's not unreasonable to expect backlash to the backlash. "I have to believe the pendulum is going to swing the other way again," said Ponce de Leon.