Path to asylum narrows, especially for Latinos
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Approval rates for asylum seekers in the U.S. are dropping dramatically in the run-up to the second Trump administration, and it's become particularly difficult for Latin American immigrants to get asylum, an Axios review finds.
Why it matters: The decrease reflects the Biden administration's new restrictions on asylum, and likely the anticipation of President-elect Trump's impending crackdown on immigration.
- New data also show that immigrants from Eastern Europe and Asia are far more likely to be granted asylum than those from Central and South America.
- A big reason for that disparity: To help clear huge backlogs in asylum cases, immigration courts have sped up hearings by using what many call a "rocket docket."
- That appears to be helping to drive down asylum approvals for Central and South Americans, who often need more time to make their cases for asylum than people fleeing war or socialism in Eastern Europe and Asia.
By the numbers: The latest case-by-case immigration court records, for October, show asylum grant rates had declined to just 35.8%, according to data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University.
- That's the lowest rate since May 2021, when the U.S. was moving away from COVID-19 restrictions and waves of new asylum seekers came to the U.S.-Mexico border, an Axios review found.
- Asylum approval rates were highest in May 2022 and September 2023, peaking at over 50%.
- Immigration courts closed 900,000 immigration and asylum cases from Oct. 1, 2023, to Sept. 30, 2024 —the most cleared cases in a fiscal year, and 235,000 more than the previous year, TRAC reports.
Zoom in: Asylum seekers from Russia, Asia and Eastern Europe were highly successful in getting asylum from U.S. immigration courts in fiscal 2024, Axios' review found.
- Asylum seekers from Russia had the highest approval rate (85.4%) for nationalities with at least 2,000 asylum decisions. China was second, with an approval rate of 76.6%.
- Immigrants from Belarus, Afghanistan, Uganda, Eritrea, Kosovo, and Ukraine all had similar approval rates, but each had just a few hundred asylum decisions.
Mexico had the lowest asylum grant rate (16.6%) for any nationality with at least 2,000 decisions. Among the 4,950 asylum decisions involving Mexicans, only 821 people were granted asylum.
- Immigration courts issued 6,201 asylum decisions from Hondurans — the most of any nationality in fiscal 2024. Only 29.1% were granted asylum.
The intrigue: Venezuela and Cuba had the highest asylum grant rates of all Latin American countries, highlighting how those fleeing socialist regimes historically have had an easier path to asylum in the U.S.
- There were 4,236 asylum seekers from Venezuela in fiscal 2024; 64.5% were granted asylum.
- 2,083 asylum requests came from Cubans; 51.6% were approved.
Between the lines: Asylum seekers can ask for protection in the U.S. if they have been persecuted or fear persecution because of their race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion.
- Proving the need for protection can be extremely difficult, and the massive backlog in immigration courts means applicants may have to wait years before their case is heard.
What we're watching: Any immigration package in Congress next year likely would have new asylum regulations, along with money for more immigration judges.
- Such changes could move more asylum cases through the system — but Trump's plan for mass deportations could result in significantly bigger backlogs.
