Israeli intelligence sees growing chance Assad's forces collapse in Syria
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A fraying billboard showing Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo after rebels took the city. Photo: Amar Haj Kadour/AFP via Getty
Israeli intelligence officials have been startled by a faster-than-expected collapse of the Syrian army's defense lines over the last 24 hours, two senior Israeli officials tell Axios.
Why it matters: The rapid advance of the rebels — who captured the city of Hama on Thursday, days after taking Aleppo — could precipitate a collapse of the Syrian Army. One of the senior Israeli officials said the fall of Damascus now seems more plausible than it had until very recently.
A U.S. official agreed that the Syrian Army's defensive lines are rapidly collapsing. "The Syrian military forces are not really fighting," the official told Axios.
- "We don't think the regime is in immediate danger, but this is the biggest challenge for the Assad regime in the last decade."
- Israel, Egypt and Jordan have all expressed concern to the U.S. in recent days about the developments in Syria and the potential for a dramatic shift inside the country, the U.S. official said.
Behind the scenes: Israeli officials said several urgent consultations were held inside the Israel Defense Forces on Thursday in light of the rapid advances by the rebels.
- Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz held a meeting with the IDF senior leadership about the developments in Syria.
- The Israeli security cabinet meeting on Thursday night is expected to focus largely on the situation in Syria, Israeli officials say.
- The U.S. official said that Israel had expressed concern to Washington about a takeover of Syria by radical Islamic elements on the one hand, or an alternative scenario in which additional Iranian forces enter the country and increase Tehran's influence.
Between the lines: Iran and Hezbollah have been crucial to helping Assad retain power through 13 years of civil war. During that time, Israel has conducted repeated strikes to push pro-Iranian forces back from its borders.
- But while a defeat of Assad would also be a strategic defeat for Iran, it could pose significant security challenges of its own for Israel given the constellation of Islamist forces involved in the rebel offensive.
