The legal struggle for Google's browser

State of play: The DOJ will ask the presiding judge to force Google to sell off or spin out the Chrome browser, according to a Bloomberg report.

• It is also likely to urge the judge to demand that Google license its search results and data to third parties and competitors.
• "Break up Google" is one scenario that no longer seems to be in play, and the government has decided not to seek the sale or spinout of Google-owned Android, the world's most popular mobile operating system.

No one really knows what a sale or spinoff would ultimately mean for Chrome and its massive user base.

• Estimates of Chrome's market share vary, but they all give Chrome billions of users on mobile and desktop — and half or more of the global browser market.
• Chrome is baked into the Android mobile operating system, and has long served as a key starting point for Google searches. More recently, it has become a way for Google to funnel users toward its Gemini AI services.
• Owning Chrome lets Google follow users' online activity in ways that help it target the ads that make up the foundation of its business.

Extracting Chrome from Google would require finding a buyer willing to pay up to $20 billion, per Bloomberg.

• If Google tries to set Chrome up as an independent company, the product — currently distributed free and supported by Google's advertising profits — would need to find a revenue source.
• Much of Chrome's popularity rests on the convenience of its integration with Google's search and other products.

The practical difficulty of a Chrome/Google divorce, along with the challenge of making the browser work as an independent business, have a lot of Silicon Valley observers scratching their heads.

• As Daring Fireball author John Gruber put it: "It's like saying I have to sell my left foot. It's very valuable to me, but of no value to anyone on its own."

What they're saying: "The DOJ continues to push a radical agenda that goes far beyond the legal issues in this case," Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google's vice president for regulatory affairs, said in a statement.

• "The government putting its thumb on the scale in these ways would harm consumers, developers and American technological leadership at precisely the moment it is most needed."

What we're watching: The parallels to the Microsoft case about 25 years ago are spooky, and go way beyond the simple fact that both cases ended up centering on web browsers.

• Microsoft spent so much time and energy fighting the government's antitrust case at the turn of the century that it loosened its grasp on the internet market a bit — leaving room for a small search startup named Google to thrive.

The rise of AI means the tech world is at the start of another vast platform shift, making this a perilous moment for Google to be at legal war with the U.S. government.

• It's too soon to know whether today's antitrust headaches are now similarly allowing OpenAI to play David to Google's Goliath — but that possibility is likely to be troubling Google leaders.

What's next: Whatever happens, expect it to take forever.

• The court will hold "remedy phase" hearings in April 2025, with the judge expected to rule over the summer. Then Google will likely appeal, and that process could take years more.
• At the same time, new DOJ management by the incoming Trump administration will get a chance to reevaluate its strategies. (The case was originally filed near the end of Trump's first term.)

There's always a chance for the government and Google to reach a settlement and put the case to rest.

• Meanwhile, a second major DOJ antitrust suit against Google — filed in 2023, and focused on its control over the ad-tech market — continues to work its way through the courts.