Tropical Storm Sara bringing "catastrophic" Central America floods
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Infrared satellite image showing Tropical Storm Sara over the Caribbean on Nov. 14. Image: NOAA
Tropical Storm Sara formed Thursday in the Caribbean and is delivering "potentially catastrophic" rainfall in Honduras.
Threat level: The storm, which also poses a threat to Belize, is not likely to make it into the Gulf of Mexico. It's instead expected to weaken over the Yucatán Peninsula.
- It's forecast to slowly meander west-southwestward toward the northern coast of Central America, bringing 30 or more inches of rain into the weekend to parts of Honduras and possibly coastal Guatemala.
- Honduras and neighboring Guatemala saw devastating flooding during Hurricane Mitch in late October 1998, with more than 10,000 deaths.
- The high terrain in this area makes it especially vulnerable to landslides and flash flooding.
- According to meteorologist Michael Lowry of WPLG Local 10 in Miami, Golosón International Airport on the west side of a port city in northern Honduras had picked up about 22 inches of rain in just 24 hours from this storm, as of Friday morning.
- This would be nearly unheard of in most U.S. states, Lowry noted in his Substack newsletter.
What we're watching: The intensity and movement of the storm after Sunday are each unclear right now, because of uncertainty regarding whether the center of the storm moves inland for a time near Honduras, or stays over water.
- An inland track would involve greater weakening over time, and prevent the storm from becoming a hurricane, and the National Hurricane Center is emphasizing a greater-than-average uncertainty in the intensity forecast.
Between the lines: Due to warming ocean waters and air temperatures from human emissions of greenhouse gases, tropical storms and hurricanes are now delivering heavier precipitation than just a few decades ago.
- This makes the meandering tropical storm, even if its winds remain relatively weak, an even bigger threat.
Zoom in: The storm continues the backloaded Atlantic hurricane season, and is the 11th named storm to form since Sept. 24th, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.
- The season overall is now well above average by most measures, though not quite as active as feared during the spring and summer.
What's next: The National Hurricane Center shows the storm curving slowly northwest as it traverses the Yucatán Peninsula and dissipates early next week.
Go deeper... Report: Extreme weather cost world $2 trillion in 10 years, U.S. worst hit
