Trump will need Venezuela to cooperate for mass deportations

• Now, more people in Venezuela have considered emigrating after mass arrests following the July 28 presidential elections, which the regime of President Nicolás Maduro claims — without showing evidence — he won.

State of play: Venezuela currently doesn't accept deportees from the U.S., but Trump's mass deportation plans could push him to make a deal with Maduro, says Ryan Berg, who leads the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Washington, D.C., think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.

• "We may end up seeing some kind of arrangement with (Maduro) if it means the ability to deport more people, for Venezuela to accept deportee flights."
• Berg adds that while initially there could be talk of pressure and sanctions like there were in Trump's first term, that might be an "opening gambit to leverage an eventual negotiation."
• Other Latin American analysts have similarly suggested that there is likely to be a "transactional approach" from Trump's second administration toward Maduro.

The Trump team did not respond to a request for comment from Axios Latino.

Between the lines: During a campaign event in August, Trump said that "Venezuela is right now being run by a dictator," referring to Maduro.

• But Trump has in the past also expressed admiration for Maduro as a "strongman," according to both John Bolton, a national security adviser during Trump's first term, and former White House adviser Olivia Troye.
• Maduro has been making overtures about an opportunity for "a fresh start," which Berg says might appeal to Trump's sense of being a dealmaker.

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