A big chunk of the future electorate is MAGA red
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
For generations, young people were a core piece of the blue base. President-elect Trump has changed the calculus, at least for young men.
Why it matters: This realignment signals that the MAGA movement — with the support of a great deal of America’s youngest voters — has lasting power.
Catch up quick: In 2008 and 2012, the youth vote was decisive for former President Obama.
- Low youth turnout was cited as one of the reasons Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, and high youth turnout was key to President Biden’s 2020 victory.
But several states, including battleground states, saw record or near-record turnout on Tuesday — and Trump still won convincingly.
- Going into Election Day, Trump was counting on low-propensity voters: in particular, younger men who've been moving right but don’t consistently turn out to vote.
- The Trump campaign targeted that population for months through podcast appearances and an emphasis on macho masculinity.
- But no one, including the Trump campaign, was sure whether it would work. Exit polls suggest it did, with young men breaking hard for Trump, particularly in swing states.
Zoom in: In Pennsylvania, men under 30 favored Trump by 18 points, according a CBS exit poll. Biden won that demographic by 9 points in 2020, CBS reports.
- Trump also saw double-digit leads with young men in Michigan and North Carolina, per ABC's exit poll.
Reality check: Overall, most younger voters still vote blue, though Trump has eroded some of that margin.
- ABC's poll found men under 30 split about evenly between Trump and Harris nationwide, with young women favoring Harris by a huge margin.
- CNN, meanwhile, found the overall Dem advantage among under-30s shrinking from 19 points for Clinton in 2016 and 24 points for Biden in 2020 to 11 points for Harris in 2024.
Between the lines: Individual exit polls aren't always reliable, but in this case they're all pointing in the same direction, with a significant shift in Trump's direction among young men.
What to watch: Whether whoever succeeds Trump as the face of his political movement can help convert young men who just voted Trump into lifelong Republicans.
