13 swing state counties to watch on Election Night
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Just a handful of counties across seven swing states will point the way to the White House for Former President Trump or Vice President Harris.
Why it matters: If you want to know which way the race is going on Election Night, this your cheat sheet.
- Follow Axios' live coverage featuring reporting and analysis from across the country.
The big picture: In 2016, more than 200 counties that had voted for former President Obama in 2012 turned red for Trump.
- In 2020, less than half that number switched from Trump to Biden, but it was enough to flip Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
- Those states hang in the balance once again, along with Nevada and North Carolina.
- The polls offer no clarity as to which candidate will carry those states, but the results on election night will — even if the states remain too close to call — if you know where to look.
Here's election data maestro Dave Wasserman's 13 countries to watch, from the Cook Political Report.
Baldwin County, Georgia
Located in central Georgia, Baldwin is a primarily rural county with a significant Black population and two colleges, far from the state's major metro centers.
- While the county has gone blue in presidential elections since 2004, the Democratic Party's margins have shrunk in recent years. Biden won it by 1.3 points, down from Hillary Clinton's 1.7.
- If Trump wins Baldwin County, it indicates the Harris campaign didn't successfully turn out young and Black voters in Georgia, per Wasserman's analysis.
Fayette County, Georgia
Located in the suburbs of Atlanta, Fayette County has typically been carried by Republican candidates but has been trending more Democratic as college-educated suburbanites flee the GOP.
- The county went to Trump by 19 points in 2016 but only seven in 2020.
- Wasserman thinks Harris needs to "come close to winning" here as she's likely to lose votes elsewhere in the state.
Cabarrus County, North Carolina
Cabarrus County in the suburbs of Charlotte has also gone red in the previous two elections, though Trump's margin shrunk from 20 points in 2016 to nine in 2020.
- If Trump wins the country by five points or less, Harris has a "decent shot" in North Carolina, Wasserman writes.
Nash County, North Carolina
Located near Raleigh, Nash County flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, but both won it by a razor thin two-tenths of a point.
- However, in the 2022 Midterms, Sen. Ted Budd (R) won the county by seven points.
- The candidate for who carried Nash County also carried the state in each of the past three presidential elections.
Muskegon County, Michigan
Near Grand Rapids, Muskegon County has gone Democratic by ever-shrinking margins from Obama (18%) to Clinton (1.5%) to Biden (0.6%).
- However, Muskegon County robustly supported Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and the state's constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion access in 2022.
- If Harris carries the county, it could be a good sign for her support among white, working-class women, Wasserman notes.
Saginaw County, Michigan
A key swing county in a critical battleground state, Saginaw County near Lake Huron flipped from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016.
- Biden won the county in 2020 by a scant 303 votes as he narrowly held the Midwestern "Blue Wall."
- If Trump wins the county, it could be a strong indicator that polls have underestimated his support among non-college whites, per Wasserman's analysis.
Bucks County, Pennsylvania
Non-college educated white voters make up about half the electorate in Bucks County, higher than other areas in the Philadelphia suburbs.
- Biden carried Bucks by four points in 2020. If Harris loses here, it's a sign she wasn't able to replicate his success with white working class voters.
- One warning sign for Harris: In 2024, the number of registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats in the county for the first time in 15 years.
Cumberland County, Pennsylvania
Located near the state capital of Harrisburg, winning Cumberland County — or even coming relatively close — could help Harris offset losses elsewhere in the ultimate battleground state.
- Trump won the county in both 2016 (+18 points) and 2020 (+11 points), but the county is getting more diverse and more Dem-friendly.
Northampton County, Pennsylvania
Eastern Pennsylvania's Northampton County has successfully predicted all but three presidential winners since 1920, making it an apt bellwether for the race.
- Trump won the county by four points in 2016 and Biden by 1.2 points in 2020.
- Roughly 16% of Northampton County is Hispanic, with most of those voters being Puerto Rican. If Trump stumbles, it could signify the recent bigoted jokes at his Madison Square Garden rally were damaging.
Sauk County, Wisconsin
Sauk County near Madison, Wisconsin has bounced between Democrats and Republicans over the past few presidential elections.
- Biden won the county by roughly 600 votes in 2020, after Trump won it by less than 200 in 2016, local media reported.
- For either candidate, winning Sauk county could be indicative or their reach into the state's rural communities and small towns.
Ozaukee County, Wisconsin
Located in the suburbs of Milwaukee, Ozaukee County is one of three red counties that make up the Republican party's base in Wisconsin.
- Yet Democrats have been gaining ground in the county. It went to Trump by 19 points in 2016 and then by 12 points in 2020.
- If Harris can close the gap even more, it could help her offset other loses in rural parts of the state, per Wasserman.
Maricopa County, Arizona
Maricopa county, which includes Phoenix, is home to roughly 60% of Arizona's voters.
- Biden won the county by 2.2 points in 2020, after Trump carried it by 2.9 points in 2016.
- False claims of voter fraud in Arizona's 2020 and 2022 elections inspired violent threats and armed demonstrations in Maricopa County. Election officials this year have warned that it could take up to 13 days to know the results in Maricopa, AP reported.
Washoe County, Nevada
Nevada's Washoe County, which encompasses Reno, is the state's second-most populous county.
- Biden won Washoe by 4.5 points in 2020, an improvement upon Clinton's 1.3 point margin in 2016.
- Dem gains in Washoe County could offset losses in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, where the GOP has made gains in recent years, Wasserman notes.
