McConnell's extreme tab on Ohio Senate race
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
The Senate Leadership Fund — the super PAC linked to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)— is spending more on Ohio challenger Bernie Moreno than any other GOP Senate candidate this year.
Why it matters: Moreno is McConnell's best chance to win 52 seats in the Senate. It's costing McConnell-linked groups a pretty penny in what is the most expensive congressional race of the cycle — by a long shot.
- Super PACs raise money to spend it, but the funds aren't unlimited. An eight-figure buy in one race means less money for another.
- Also, super PACs have to pay much steeper prices for ads compared to campaigns, which contributes to some of the gap. Another consideration: Ads in Ohio are a lot pricier than in, say, Montana.
The intrigue: The gap between the SLF's Ohio investment and the Moreno campaign's own spending is a source of quiet frustration for some of D.C.'s top GOP strategists.
- They privately think Moreno should have done more campaigning over the summer — and spent more of his own money — to introduce himself to voters.
- Had he done so, "this race would already be over," said one Republican strategist, adding Moreno let Democrats define "him as a used car salesman who screws his employees over."
What we're hearing: One national GOP operative close to the campaign said the criticism is based on old-school ways of campaigning that don't work anymore.
- They added Moreno's team intentionally focused significant advertising on streaming platforms over the summer, which is not captured in the AdImpact data.
- "We are focused on winning. We recognize the armchair quarterbacks don't quite understand what that looks like," Moreno spokesperson Reagan McCarthy told Axios in a statement.
Between the lines: McConnell reportedly preferred Matt Dolan over Moreno in the Ohio primary as the best choice to finally take down Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a state that voted for Trump by 8 points in 2020.
- Still, SLF and American Crossroads reserved $83 million worth of fall ad space before the primaries had even wrapped. (They have now spent $38 million more than that, per AdImpact.)
- Moreno has gained ground in the polls and sources close to the campaign say their latest polling shows him increasing his lead to six percentage points.
- Brown leads Moreno by a single percentage point in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
By the numbers: SLF and related groups have spent nearly double on TV and digital ads to bolster Moreno than on the next priciest race — $161 million compared to $83 million for David McCormick in Pennsylvania.
- The Moreno campaign has spent roughly $26 million on ads on its own, in coordination with NRSC or via its joint fundraising committee.
- It's a much smaller share of the overall ad spending this year than other GOP campaigns.
- But when accounting for price disparities, the share of Moreno ads that have come from super PACs this year is roughly in line with Pennsylvania, another top race.
