Trump's "I'm f***ing crazy" foreign policy

Driving the news: Trump told the Journal he'd threaten to impose massive tariffs or cut off trade altogether to prevent China from blockading Taiwan.

• Asked if he'd use military force if Xi still followed through, Trump dismissed the possibility outright: "I wouldn't have to, because he respects me and he knows I'm f***ing crazy."
• In the same interview, Trump claimed he'd told Russian President Vladimir Putin: "We're friends. I don't want to do it but... if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard," including "right in the middle of fricking Moscow."
• There's no evidence that conversation actually happened, but Trump has recounted interactions with leaders all over the world in similar terms.

Zoom in: Trump's former national security adviser, Robert O'Brien, made the case this week that Trump's unpredictability could indeed have prevented the invasion of Ukraine.

• While Putin knew President Biden would deploy sanctions but not troops, Putin would have faced the unlikely but unnerving possibility Trump might send in the Marines, O'Brien told the New York Times.
• O'Brien, who's likely to have a top role in a second Trump administration, compared it to Richard Nixon's "madman theory" — if Putin thought there was even a slim chance of U.S. intervention, he'd be forced to recalculate.

The big picture: In Trump's telling, the mere threat of force — military or economic — will keep the world in line.

• In his debate with Vice President Harris, Trump boasted that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had told him the world was less chaotic when he was president because other leaders were "afraid" of him.
• Trump has claimed his warnings that he might not defend NATO allies led them to increase military spending, and that his threats of "fire and fury" toward North Korea led Kim Jong-un into (ultimately fruitless) nuclear talks.

The intrigue: Some Trump allies have even hinted that his favorite policy — across-the-board tariffs — might not actually have to be implemented.

• The threat of 20% universal tariffs is a "maximalist" position designed to bring trading partners to the negotiating table, Trump economic adviser Scott Bessent claimed to the Financial Times. "It's escalate to de-escalate."

• Trump himself has suggested his threats of massive tariffs on companies that offshore manufacturing are a "figure of speech" — "I'll say 100, 200, I'll say 500, I don't care," he told Fox News.

Reality check: "What Trump is saying is that unpredictability can deter challenges," says Richard Haass, a veteran of four U.S. administrations and president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. "Much more likely to deter challenges is predictability that you would resist."

• Unpredictability in the Oval Office may keep adversaries on their toes for a time, but rarely serves U.S. interests in the longer-term because it also "unnerves friends and allies," Haass contends.

Flashback: In some targeted instances in his first term — such as when he threatened to tank Turkey's economy over the detention of an American pastor — Trump's "I'm crazy" approach seemed to work.

• In other cases — such as Trump's insistence Iran would come crawling to him for a new nuclear deal to escape his wrath — it didn't.

Between the lines: Trump's vision of his second term foreign policy wagers everything on his personal relations with foreign leaders.

• Xi respects and fears him, so he won't invade Taiwan. Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky respect him, and will swiftly make peace if he wins.
• While all presidents overestimate their ability to influence fellow leaders through personal chemistry or force of personality, Haass says, "Trump exaggerates it more than most."