Behind the Curtain: Dems fear they're blowing it
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A growing number of top Democrats tell us privately they feel Vice President Harris will lose — even though polls show a coin-toss finish 11 days from now.
Why it matters: Democrats admit they tend to be hand-wringing, bed-wetting, doomsdayers. But what's striking is how our private conversations with Democrats inside and outside her campaign reveal broad concern that little she does, says — or tries — seems to move the needle.
This is after Democrats spent $1 billion — nearly twice as much as Republicans — over the past three months to polish her image and soil former President Trump's. Trump and allied committees raised about half Harris' total, $92 million, from Oct. 1 to 16, the N.Y. Times reports this morning (gift link).
- And this is after Trump's cringy 40-minute onstage sway to '80s music, his threats to target "enemies within," calling his opponent "retarded" and "sh*t" — and having his former White House chief of staff say he's fascist and talked admiringly of Hitler. (A new Harris ad uses audio from the New York Times interview with the former aide, retired U.S. Marine Gen. John Kelly).
Between the lines: We're not saying Harris is losing or will lose. An earlier "Behind the Curtain" column spelled out why this is toss-up America.
- Our reporting simply reflects scores of conversations with people close to Harris and intimately involved in swing-state races, including officials inside her campaign and top Biden administration officials.
- Harris' rhetorical journey has mirrored Democratic moods — from "joy" over the summer to darkness this week, when she painted Trump as a dangerous fascist.
What we're hearing: In a troubling sign for the campaign, top Democrats are already starting to point fingers at who'd be more responsible for a Harris loss — President Biden for dragging his feet, or Harris herself. "Going down?" a top Democratic official texted.
- Democrats fear she has made too many different cases against Trump, and still hasn't fully revealed herself to voters, who crave to know more.
- "She is who she is," one longtime Democratic strategist said. "Let's hope it's enough."
Democrats say Harris faces a maddening double standard, as Trump threatens to jail adversaries and strip broadcast licenses. "He gets to be lawless. She has to be flawless," CNN senior political commentator Van Jones said this week.
- Harris' closing ads focus on Trump as the three uns: "unhinged, unstable and unchecked." (Watch the ad, "Total Power.")
The other side: Trump's closing ad campaign has been tightly focused on two clips: an ad focused on transgender rights ("Kamala's agenda is they/them, not you"), and Harris' own words on "The View" that "not a thing" comes to mind about how she'd differ from Biden. (She has since said she'd bring a "new generation of leadership.")
- Stunning stat: The Trump campaign alone has spent more than $30 million on trans-focused ads (including one in Spanish) in the past 36 days, according to AdImpact data.
Top Republicans, in private conversations, seem shockingly confident, given the consistent 50-50 polls. They talk in granular detail about White House jobs, and discuss policy playbooks for '25.
- Reflecting the bravado, Dan Scavino, Trump's longtime close aide and ghost tweeter, refers to the 45th president as "45–47," and wrote last week on Trump's Truth Social Platform: "I have ZERO interest in working with anyone who is a former colleague that disappeared upon our departure from the White House—and was no where to be found when DJT announced his candidacy on 11/15/22, or was silent throughout 2023. STOP CALLING. STOP EMAILING. STOP TEXTING——YOU'RE NOT HEARING BACK FROM ME."
The big picture: A common gripe among high-level Dems is that Harris does a nice job explaining why people shouldn't vote for Trump — but struggles to crisply explain why they should vote for her. In other words, she's a strong prosecutor — but struggles as a public defender.
- Democratic insiders loved a line Harris used in the CNN town hall on Wednesday night, and sharpened Thursday night outside Atlanta in Clarkston, Georgia: "Just imagine the Oval Office in three months. ... It's either Donald Trump in there stewing — stewing! — over his enemies list, or me, working for you, checking off my to-do list." The campaign even socialized a 15-point "Kamala Harris' to-do list."
- "Better late than never," a top Democrat told us. Another leading Democrat said: "It's good. We're not dead yet."
Zoom in: Democrats once felt very good about Nevada, a state Biden won in 2020. But early voting has them panicked. Jon Ralston, the top Nevada election expert, writes that the surge in early rural Republican voting — a "rural tsunami" — is ominous for Harris: "There is no good news in these numbers for Dems."
- Pennsylvania continues to worry Harris, despite Biden winning there in 2020. Among the seven swing states, it's the one campaign insiders think she absolutely has to win, with signs of GOP momentum in the state's Senate race.
Reality check: Harris inherited a very tough hand. Establishing and executing a campaign for president starting just 3½ months before an election is unprecedented in modern politics.
- Besides Biden being unpopular, inflation has been the incumbent killer globally. Polls and election results in Canada, the U.K., France, Germany, Japan and South Korea all show this anti-incumbent tide.
The bottom line: We can't ignore the reality that no matter what Harris says or does, this country has never elected a woman president and only once elected a Black president. It's never elected a Black woman. Toss in broad concerns about immigration and inflation, and it's a lot to overcome, her advisers say.
- Axios' Alex Thompson and Zachary Basu contributed reporting.
