Focus group: Pennsylvania swing voters split on Harris
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
Just six of 12 Pennsylvania swing voters who backed Donald Trump in 2016 but switched to Joe Biden in 2020 said they're all-in for Vice President Kamala Harris in our latest Engagious/Sago focus group.
- Two others said they're going back to Trump, while the remaining four lean toward Harris but reserve the right to change their minds, as they grapple with uncertainty or mixed emotion.
Why it matters: Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, may be the most consequential battleground state in the nation.
- Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by a margin of a little more than 1 percentage point; Trump won it in 2016 by a little less than 1 point.
- Harris' path to victory relies on either keeping or replacing President Biden's coalition in the state.
"The idea that this close out, four Biden voters the last time around are not locked in for Harris is a sign of vulnerability," said Engagious president Rich Thau, who moderated the focus groups.
- "That only half of them are locked in for Harris, that to me is consequential," Thau said. "It's not apathy. These are folks that will vote. The question is, for whom?"
How it works: The online panels, conducted Tuesday night, were comprised of four Republicans, three Democrats and five independents. While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events.
What they're saying: "I'm thinking about how she's done and is she going to be good in the front seat; is she going to be a good leader?" said Glenda T., 41, one of the undecideds.
- "I really feel like I'm a true independent, and I look at both sides, and I like to know what's going on until ... my hand is kind of forced a few days before," said Lisa W.
- One undecided who leans toward Harris had a vote-splitting approach. If Democrats are poised to lose control of the Senate, keeping a Democrat in the White House could provide a political counterbalance.
- John. F, who plans on voting for Trump, said that he thinks the "country was a little bit better when he was president." The 58-year-old mentioned the economy and affordability as areas where he felt things were better under Trump.
- While the Harris campaign has deployed Republican surrogates including former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) to try to win over swing voters, just one of the undecided or Trump-leaning voters in this week's focus group viewed Cheney's recent endorsement of Harris favorably.
What we're watching: Nine of the 12 voters in the panels said they are concerned about political violence breaking out after the election.
- "I think everybody is so wound up and so hyped up that I'm concerned about what might happen from either side, depending on who wins," said Bob C., 55, from Willow Grove, Pa.
- "Just reflecting back on what happened January 6th, never would you imagine something would happen like this in America at the Capitol," said Hope B., 49, also from Willow Grove.
At the same time, 8 in 12 saw Democrats' argument that this presidential election is the most consequential of their lifetimes as an exaggeration.
- "Many of these Pennsylvania swing voters have grown skeptical of end-of-democracy warnings, and now suffer from 'Most-Consequential-Election Fatigue,'" Thau said.
Between the lines: Conspiracy theories continue to shape some voters' mindsets.
- Trump was targeted in two apparent assassination attempts this year — one in Butler, Pa., as well as another at his golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla.
- Despite no evidence, five say they think it's possible Trump staged the attempt.
Go deeper: Behind the Curtain: Dems' Blue Wall blues
