Jeffries and Johnson plow cash into House "squinter" races
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
With dreams of going big, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) are pouring millions into long-shot targets.
Why it matters: The House majority will be decided in little more than two dozen toss-up races, but both sides crave the shot at a substantial majority.
- 🔎 Call them "squinter races." They aren't sleepers, given the spending. But when one party squints, they can see a path to victory.
- That creates a must-do: Pick off safe(er) seats on the other side, or at least make them spend big on defense.
🤑 The DCCC and the Jeffries-linked House Majority PAC have invested $21 million into flipping a half dozen GOP-held districts rated "lean" or "likely Republican" by Cook Political Report.
- The NRCC and Johnson's Congressional Leadership Fund have spent around $16.7 million on seven Democratic-held districts rated "lean" or "likely Democratic."
Zoom in: Democrats are going after six of Cook's 14 "lean" and "likely" Republican seats.
- While Republicans are targeting seven Democratic seats, they represent a much smaller proportion of the possible targets.
- Said one Democratic strategist: "This is what you're able to do when you have the bigger checking account."
Driving the news: Two "squinters" recently came into focus for Democrats when Cook moved Iowa's 1st and 3rd districts from "lean Republican" to toss-up.
- The same happened for Republicans when Cook changed Virginia's 7th district from "lean Democrat" to a jump-ball.
- Democrats have poured $5.5 million into Iowa-1 and $2.1 million in Iowa-3, according to data from AdImpact. Republicans spent $1.8 million in Virginia-7.
Zoom out: Three main factors can put a district on the target list, Republican and Democratic strategists who work on House races told us.
1) Weak incumbent: For Democrats, targets include Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisc.), Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) and Scott Perry (R-Pa.).
- For Republicans, it's members like Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), who they see as facing the first truly tough challenge of her 40-year career in a district that voted for former President Trump in 2020.
2) Strong challenger: Democrats are enamored with the backgrounds of candidates such as Monica Tranel, a former Olympian who's challenging Zinke, and Janelle Stelson, a TV anchor running against Perry.
- Republicans are leaning on the diversity of their candidate slate in these districts. That includes Rep. Pat Ryan's (D-N.Y.) challenger Alison Esposito, Rep. Jahana Hayes' (D-Conn.) challenger George Logan and former Rep. Mayra Flores, who's running against Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas).
3) Promising fundamentals: House Democrats hope backlash to abortion laws in redder states like Iowa will drive turnout. They're also counting on a boost from competitive Senate races in Montana, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
- Republicans are hoping for a second wave of backlash against Democrats in California and New York that fueled their 2022 victory.
The bottom line: Look for more ad buys. Democrats have plenty of cash to throw around.
- The DCCC last month added John Avlon and Whitney Fox, the challengers to Reps. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), to their "Red to Blue" program. Both districts are rated "likely Republican."
