Potential Trump loss threatens destruction of modern GOP
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Illustration: Megan Robinson/Axios
An identity crisis. A brutal power struggle. Years in the wilderness.
- If Donald Trump is defeated in next month's election, the Republican Party will face a reckoning unprecedented in modern political history.
Why it matters: Never before has a party's identity been so deeply entwined with the fate, fortunes and flaws of one man. Four consecutive poor election cycles would unleash a wave of sustained scrutiny that the GOP — as it currently exists — may not survive.
The big picture: Right now, it's difficult to see through the November fog.
- As Axios reported last week, Trump is laying the groundwork to deny the results of the election, again spreading a litany of baseless fraud claims in anticipation of his potential defeat.
- Election challenges are inevitable — Republicans already have filed over 100 lawsuits — and voting results may not be finalized for weeks, if not months.
Now put that to one side.
- If Vice President Kamala Harris ultimately is inaugurated in January, a rudderless Republican Party will be forced — for the first time — to move on from Trump, who has said he will not seek the 2028 nomination.
- At last week's VP debate, Sen. JD Vance gave us a window of what MAGA sans Trump could look like — presenting a polished case for economic populism without the cult of personality.
- But any ideological successor would face challenges: Even the Trumpiest candidates have historically underperformed the former president, whose unique appeal to disaffected voters has proven hard to replicate.
What to watch: Anti-Trump Republicans — a cohort that swelled in the aftermath of Jan. 6 — are salivating at the prospect of reclaiming their party.
- Former Rep. Liz Cheney, who campaigned for Harris last week, would be among the conservative leaders seeking to restore democracy as a core Republican value.
- So would Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador and presidential candidate who has been a harsh critic of Trump's isolationist foreign policy (though she says she intends to vote for him).
- But given the years of hostility toward establishment Republicans — and the probable entrenchment of pro-MAGA forces, even if Trump fades away — the most likely outcome is a deeply fractured party.
Flashback: We saw glimpses of that after the 2022 midterms, when Republicans' underwhelming performance led to recriminations and a fleeting push to abandon Trump.
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a conservative culture warrior who had won re-election in a landslide, appeared set to inherit the MAGA throne, backed by the Murdoch media empire.
- Then it all came crashing down: Republicans rallied around Trump after his indictments, and DeSantis' presidential campaign imploded under a vengeful onslaught from the former president and his allies.
Reality check: Trump could still win. Every battleground state is polling within the margin of error, and Harris so far is failing to match President Biden's 2020 support among key demographic groups.
- Even if he loses, Trump's criminal trials will hang over the nation for potentially years to come — making it extremely difficult for the GOP to fully move on.
