Trump fear factor hits Senate GOP
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
McConnell and Trump at the White House in 2020. Photo: Doug Mills-Pool/Getty Images
Senators are privately (and publicly) saying they hope Donald Trump stays out of the internal election to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader.
Why it matters: None of them know — or it's a damn good secret — whether the former president will make an endorsement. But senators and advisors fear a Trump intervention could turn the secret ballot leader election into a public feud.
- "I said, 'Sir, if I was you, I would stay out of the race, because there's no win for you in this,'" Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told us about a recent call with Trump.
- "I hope not," said Sen. Thom Tillis, when asked if he thinks Trump will weigh in. "I think outside influence could be problematic."
- "He's offered some views on it to me," Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told us. "It's safe to say he has a pretty consistent prediction of who he thinks it'll be." Hawley said he did not know if Trump would weigh in.
Between the lines: This the first real competitive Senate GOP leadership race of the Trump-era, and his endorsement carries a lot of weight with a growing segment of the conference.
McConnell has had a tumultuous relationship with the former president.
- The top two candidates — Sens. John Thune and John Cornyn — each have had rocky relationships with Trump. However, they have worked to make amends.
- After Jan. 6, Thune denounced Trump and initially endorsed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) for president. Cornyn has said the GOP needed to move on from Trump.
Senate sources do not talk about Sen. Rick Scott's (R-Fla.) bid as seriously as Thune's or Cornyn's, though he has a good relationship with Trump.
- "Sen. Scott is focused on dramatically changing the way the Senate operates and creating a member-driven process," according to spokesperson McKinley Lewis.
Sources often describe Thune as the likely favorite, though they say not to discount how much Cornyn's long history of hard-dollar fundraising for Senate campaigns means to people.
- Cornyn told us it's been a few weeks since he spoke with Trump about the leadership race. But he visited Mar-a-Lago a couple months ago "to talk about planning for the future," adding they've been "visiting with some of the transition folks."
- Mullin said Trump "likes" Thune despite their rocky past. The Oklahoma Republican has publicly backed Thune.
- Some sources suspect there could be a late entry: NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is the most-floated name.
The bottom line: There's not a lot of incentive for senators benefiting from both Thune and Cornyn's aggressive fundraising efforts to commit too early.
- "If one of them felt that they really had a majority, I think they would not be shy about saying that, but I don't think anybody does," Hawley said.
