Hurricane Helene damages could hit $35 billion

• The toll, with well over 100 killed in six states, is becoming clearer as meteorologists question if their messaging prior to the storm could have been clearer.

Zoom in: Steve Bowen, chief science officer at Gallagher Re, a reinsurance company, told Axios the damage may rise to about $35 billion in total economic losses.

• "A minimum starting baseline of $20 billion is a reasonable expectation from Helene's winds and water-related impacts," Bowen said.
• According to him, many, if not most, homeowners in affected areas in the Carolinas and Tennessee lack federal flood insurance. That means a large gap between total economic cost from the storm, and what will be covered by insurance.
• He predicts that the total insured losses from Florida to Virginia and points to the west will run into the mid-to-high single digit billions, at a minimum.
• Moody's Analytics' estimate of Hurricane Helene's losses are in a similar range, of up to $34 billion.

Yes, but: Other estimates released in the past few days have exceeded $100 billion, but they may be including factors beyond direct physical damage and net losses for business interruptions.

• The additional costs will add up but are difficult to calculate ahead of time and often aren't followed up on. These can include lost worker productivity, health care costs, excess deaths and other macroeconomic effects.
• The flood losses, rather than wind damage, is the main cause of different estimates between insured and economic losses, according to an event summary from Guy Carpenter, a reinsurance broker that provides climate risk solutions.
• The summary details some of the unfathomable infrastructure damage in Georgia and the Carolinas in particular, including the highest number of cellular towers taken out in a single event since at least 2017.

The big picture: Search and rescue missions were underway Tuesday to track down those still unaccounted for in western North Carolina.

• Across the Southeast, more than 2,400 people were being housed in shelters, according to the American Red Cross — a number the organization says is increasing.
• The most urgent needs for storm survivors were the same: shelter, food, WiFi and bottled water — lots of bottled water.

More than 1.5 million people remained out of power, particularly in Georgia and South Carolina, where countless fallen trees knocked over power lines, and utility companies were overwhelmed by the scope of the damage.

• In some areas, new electrical infrastructure has to be rebuilt, rather than repaired.
• Large parts of Asheville's water system is down, and in need of extensive repairs, which is a long-term project.

The intrigue: According to Bowen, it's unlikely that Helene will result in the same insurance market turmoil that followed Hurricane Ian in 2020, when $50 to $60 billion in insured losses took place.

• That caused widespread shifts in the Florida insurance market, and in other states that have been seeing frequent hurricanes in recent years, with many homeowners now unable to affordably purchase policies.
• Insurers, particularly re-insurance companies, are in a more solid financial standing now than when Ian hit, he said.
• "I would say that, for the most part, this should be pretty well absorbed by the industry."

Between the lines: Bowen and other experts are asking themselves what more could have been done to prevent the large loss of life associated with this storm.

• While the National Weather Service forecast office that covers the Asheville and Boone, N.C. region warned in unusually stark language of an unprecedented event, those in danger may have had trouble figuring out what actions to take in such a situation.
• Social science research shows that people tend to think about their past storm experiences to prepare for an upcoming threat. Yet virtually no one in western North Carolina can remember the previous benchmark flood, which for many of the hardest hit areas, took place in 1916.
• "You just can't wrap your head around what that means here," Allison Richmond, public information officer for Haywood County's emergency services office, told the Washington Post.

What they're saying: "People hear these really dire forecasts, but they haven't been through it before, and I don't think that they're able to truly comprehend what a worst case scenario actually means," Bowen said.

With assistance from Jen Ashley.

Go deeper:

Helene knocks top U.S. climate data center offline

Helene took out an N.C. town the entire tech world relies on