Progressives hope Harris' border shift is temporary

• Immigration is likely to be a central focus for the White House and Congress next year regardless of how the Nov. 5 election turns out, given the historic migration crises across the globe.
• Some progressive groups are quietly hoping that Harris' tough-on-the-border rhetoric is just a posture to help her win in November — and that she'd govern closer to the more liberal stances she held during the 2020 Democratic primary.

Driving the news: After more than 3½ years in the Biden administration, Harris has largely shifted from framing herself as a longtime immigrant advocate to a tough border hawk.

• She has pledged to sign a White House-backed bipartisan bill that failed during the current Congress. It would significantly restrict asylum, continue building a border wall, and dedicate historic levels of funding to detain undocumented immigrants.
• It's a contrast to the stance she had as a California senator. In her first speech on the Senate floor in 2017, Harris said she'd prosecuted "everything from low-level offenses to homicides. I know what a crime looks like. I will tell you: an undocumented immigrant is not a criminal."
• While running for president in 2019, she pledged to make illegally crossing the border a civil rather than a criminal offense.

Zoom in: Several organizations made clear they would oppose Harris if she tried to pass the border bill next year, as president.

• Kerri Talbot, executive director of the Immigration Hub, told Axios the group "still opposes this bill."
• "If you take out the Ukraine aid that was originally part of the compromise, it's just a Republican bill."

David Stacy, vice president of government affairs at the Human Rights Campaign, told Axios the bill "undermines asylum protections for LGBTQ+ people fleeing violence."

• Oxfam America's Gina Cummings said the group believe the bill "should not be brought to the Senate floor or passed under any current or future administration."
• Sunil Varghese, policy director at the International Refugee Assistance Project, said the group opposes the bill because it would gut asylum access and legalize "anti-immigrant policies rather than reform or modernize the sorely outdated U.S. immigration system."

Between the lines: Talbot added that she still supports Harris.

• "We all know and trust Harris to make the right decisions when she's in office. I don't think this bill will ever come up again, as is," Talbot said.

What they're saying: Axios asked Harris' campaign whether she was available for a five- to 10-minute interview to discuss her position on immigration. A campaign spokesperson declined.

• Harris' campaign pointed to a recent radio interview she had with a friendly host in which she said: "We have to have immigration policy that understands that we can fight for our Dreamers, provide a pathway to citizenship for those who have earned it.
• "We can keep families together, and we can secure the border."

Reality check: Many Democrats are pushing aside their disagreements with Harris' recent positions at a time when Trump is pledging the largest deportation operation in U.S. history, sweeping domestic raids, and other far more hawkish policies.

• California Sen. Alex Padilla, who replaced Harris in that chamber after she became vice president, said in May that the border bill "contains some of the same tried and failed policies that would actually make the situation worse at the southern border."
• But Padilla said Harris "is the only candidate in this race who also values keeping families together and providing a pathway to citizenship for long-term residents. And I'm proud to support her."
• The progressive group Indivisible told Axios that although it doesn't back Harris "on every position ... there is a yawning abyss between her and Trump on immigration policy."
• "Stopping Trump is absolutely critical."