What Amazon's strict return to office policy says about remote work

• Currently, Amazon employees are expected to go in for three days.

Zoom in: The tech sector has been through a lot of layoffs over the past few years. It's not as easy to find a new job, leaving many feeling stuck.

• "The power has shifted back towards companies, which is what emboldens them to take hard-line stances like [Amazon's]," says Erin Grau, cofounder of Charter, a future of work media company.
• In other sectors, such as manufacturing, the labor market is still pretty tight — and workers have some leverage. Boeing workers, for example, felt confident enough that they went out on strike last week.
• Still, overall, the tech industry has the highest share of employees working remotely. If things tighten up, it'll just bring the sector in line with others.

Zoom out: Amazon's change, which starts in January, sets a new standard and may give companies cover to restrict work-from-home a bit more — while still looking generous, says Brian Elliott, a former executive at Slack who is now a work consultant.

• "Two days in office becomes three. And three days becomes four," he says. Companies can make these moves and say: "We're not as bad as Amazon though."
• Other employers won't change a thing — and instead could use Amazon's move as a recruiting opportunity. Microsoft's hybrid work policy just became even more enticing to top tech talent, says Elliott.

The big picture: Amazon might change things at the margin in the tech sector, but that doesn't mean we're headed back to a fully in-office world, academics and consultants who watch this trend closely tell Axios.

• The share of U.S. workers in hybrid arrangements has remained relatively steady since early 2023, per data from WFH research, a monthly survey run University of Chicago, ITAM, MIT, and Stanford University.

Four years out from the radical upheaval of the pandemic, most companies have settled into a new set-up and wouldn't want to go back. They also have internal research showing that employees are happier with hybrid work.

• "I think we are firmly in the hybrid era," says Prithwiraj Choudhury, a professor at Harvard Business School.

State of play: Amazon is the most prominent tech company to go back to five days a week in office. And that shouldn't come as a shock.

• CEO Andy Jassy has been gunning for in-office work for more than a year. In the memo this week, he says being in the office is a way to "strengthen our culture."
• And that culture has long been known for its intensity.
• The company doesn't mean "culture" as belonging and inclusiveness, says Elliott. "What they mean is: are you in it to win it and are you fully dedicated to the company?"

Between the lines: Experts say some workers will quit because of the policy change. A lot of workers can't be that hardcore.

• Working parents — mothers in particular — were already in a rough spot when Amazon put a three-day mandate in place last year, as Bloomberg reported.
• "I'm most concerned about diversity," says Grau. "We know who prefers to, and is able to, work full-time in the office. They're more likely to be white men without primary caregiving responsibilities."
• "Not everyone will leave, but some of the best performers are at risk," says Choudhury. "Especially women and minorities.

For the record: Even after employees were called back to the office for three days a week, Amazon's maintained its diversity levels, spokesman Brad Glasser told Axios, pointing to its workforce data.

What to watch: Keep an eye on the economy. In a downturn, the pendulum will swing back even further in employers' favor.